130313IT

Page 35311

1 already sought its admission on two previous occasions. First, during

2 the testimony of Robert Donia on the 9th of June, 2010, and, second,

3 during the testimony of Momcilo Mandic, on the 8th of July, 2010. On

4 both of these occasions, the Chamber denied admission.

5 On the 11th of March, 2013, Puhalac provided further details as

6 to the source of the document and gave his position as to the accuracy of

7 its contents. The Chamber is therefore satisfied that 1D855 may now be

8 admitted.

9 The Registrar will assign the relevant exhibit numbers in due

10 course.

11 That said, shall we bring in the witness.

12 THE REGISTRAR: Yes, Your Honours. 65 ter number 1D7846 will be

13 MFI'd D3120; and 65 ter number 1D855 will be Exhibit D3121.

14 JUDGE KWON: Thank you.

15 [Trial Chamber and Legal Officer confer]

16 [The witness takes the stand]

17 JUDGE KWON: Good morning, Mr. Tesic.

18 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Good morning.

19 JUDGE KWON: Pleas make yourself comfortable.

20 We'll continue with your cross-examination.

21 Yes, Mr. Nicholls.

22 MR. NICHOLLS: Good morning, Your Honours, thank you.

23 WITNESS: ALEKSANDAR TESIC [Resumed]

24 [Witness answered through interpreter]

25 Cross-examination by Mr. Nicholls: [Continued]

Page 35312

1 Q. Mr. Tesic, when we left --

2 A. Could you please speak up a little? I can't hear you.

3 JUDGE KWON: Our usher will assist you.

4 Mr. Tesic, do you hear me well, now?

5 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Yes, yes, I can hear you.

6 MR. NICHOLLS:

7 Q. Mr. Tesic, when we left off, I was beginning to talk about

8 paragraph 41 of your statement, which -- your Defence statement, where

9 you state:

10 "On the night of 13 or 14 July I saw several buses loaded with

11 Muslims in the town of Bratunac. At that time I thought these people

12 were from Potocari and could not be transported at night. There were no

13 soldiers in the city," et cetera.

14 "The next day I learned that there were several Muslim corpses in

15 the Vuk Karadzic primary school."

16 Now, you agree with me on the 13th of July in Bratunac, these

17 days you described yesterday as critical, there were buses and trucks of

18 captured and separated Muslim men -- men, all over the town of Bratunac?

19 A. Well, I can say specifically that this was throughout Bratunac.

20 I did see buses outside the municipal buildings, some three, four, or

21 five of them, and in a small street leading to the elementary school.

22 Now, how many buses exactly there were, I don't know, because, in fact, I

23 only saw them in the evening, and again I can't recall whether it was the

24 13th or the 14th precisely.

25 Now, I was in my office and from there I could see -- you could

Page 35313

1 see the buses, if you look out the window, but I could also smell the

2 exhaust coming out of the buses because their engines were on so that's

3 how I actually noticed them. I went down to the entrance to the building

4 and I saw that these buses were full of people.

5 That's what I can say.

6 Q. Okay. So is that your testimony, that you didn't leave the

7 office on the 13th? You only saw what you could see from the front of

8 your municipality building in the centre of town?

9 A. Yes. I didn't walk about in the town to see something in

10 particular. What I saw is mainly what you saw that evening.

11 Q. Okay. And that was -- you were staying in your office because,

12 as you said in your testimony last time you were here, this is at T7843:

13 "As to the 13th, I really can't say for sure. I can't remember

14 where I was, probably I was in my office preparing documents for the next

15 day because there were a lot of documents to send these recruits the next

16 day on the 14th."

17 Is that right?

18 A. Yes, that's right. Because I had a regular instruction or a

19 call-up for -- to serve my -- the -- the service, the regular term. And

20 we had prepared the documents. And I escorted the recruits to the

21 assembly point in Zvornik --

22 Q. We'll get to that. That's the 14th. That's the next day. We'll

23 get to that. Now these men on the buses, the few that you could see and

24 hear, they were prisoners, weren't they? Not people from Potocari who

25 had stopped for the night.

Page 35314

1 A. Well, please believe me that I don't know that.

2 At that point in time, I thought these were people who had been

3 in Potocari and who couldn't be bused in the course of the day to the

4 territory under Muslim control and that they were waiting for the day

5 break to take them over.

6 Q. Okay. Well, Potocari's -- there'll be -- there's testimony from

7 other witnesses, that's about 4 kilometres away. The Trial Chamber has

8 been there. It's about a five-minute drive from Bratunac to the centre

9 of Potocari; correct?

10 A. Yes. It's about 5 kilometres away. So, yeah.

11 Q. Yeah.

12 A. That's about it.

13 Q. So would it make sense to take people from Potocari - and my

14 position is these were prisoners, not women and children or anybody else

15 from Potocari - drive them 5 kilometres and then stop for the night and

16 keep them on the bus. If these were all people from Potocari who could

17 go anywhere of their own free will, why wouldn't you just take them back

18 to their homes in Srebrenica and let them spend the night there instead

19 of on a bus on a street?

20 A. Well, you shouldn't ask me. I really don't know anything about

21 that. I told you that at the time that's what I thought. Now whether

22 that's how it was, I really I couldn't tell, nor can I say anything about

23 it now because I really don't know.

24 Q. Yeah. So as you sit here now, you don't know whether there were

25 prisoners held in Bratunac on the night of the 13th of July, 1995?

Page 35315

1 That's your truthful, honest testimony today?

2 A. I can say again, I don't know whether these people were prisoners

3 or those people from Potocari. At the time, I thought they were the

4 people from Potocari. Now whether they were prisoners or people who just

5 wanted to be transferred further on, I really at that point in time I

6 didn't think of that.

7 Q. Okay. So then I assume that from your office in the municipality

8 building, since there were thousands of people on buses who weren't

9 prisoners who were just being transported of their own free will, you

10 probably saw hundreds of them getting off the buses and trucks, walking

11 around to stretch their legs, going to the Hotel Fontana for a drink,

12 something to eat, since they were just welcome people in Bratunac?

13 A. Well, that's cynical. I really don't think that's how it is, nor

14 was it like that. I just know that there was no military presence in

15 Bratunac at the time. There were elderly people, women and children, and

16 the people on the buses -- the people that I saw, people on the buses,

17 they were guarded by one person, whether soldier a military policeman I

18 can't say for certain. But had they so wished, they could have gotten

19 off the bus and just overwhelmed that one -- all of them together, that

20 one single soldier. That's how I saw it. They were just sitting quietly

21 and peacefully on their seats. That's what I saw.

22 Q. Yeah, well, I'm not going to bring it up, but D02262 is a Defence

23 statement of a military policeman from Bratunac named Mile Janjic, and in

24 paragraph 4 he talks about how he was securing buses in Bratunac that

25 night.

Page 35316

1 So, first of all, these people were not free to leave. And,

2 second of all, there were soldiers in Bratunac to guard these prisoners,

3 weren't there?

4 A. When I left the municipal building, I saw, and as I've already

5 said, there would be one person securing these buses, and I suppose this

6 was the escort who would escort these people to their final destination,

7 wherever they were going. That all I know about it.

8 Q. All right. Let me reading you something else from your

9 testimony.

10 You were not aware, this is at T7844 again, that there were

11 prisoner, Muslim men held that night in the Vuk Karadzic school or the

12 hangar, correct? You didn't know that, correct?

13 A. In the elementary school building? No, I didn't go there. I

14 didn't see anything.

15 Q. Okay. Try to answer my question with a yes or a no when you can.

16 Let me read out your answer from your testimony in Blagojevic:

17 "No. No, I wasn't aware of that. Of course, later on there were

18 stories going around but a lot later."

19 So it wasn't until a lot later that you found out that any Muslim

20 men had been held -- or heard stories, rather, that Muslim men had been

21 held in the hangar and the Vuk Karadzic school?

22 A. Yes. I heard later on that there were -- that there had been

23 prisoners there. Perhaps a few days later. It was impossible to conceal

24 that. Whoever was interested and whoever passed by the school probably

25 could see it. I didn't go there and I didn't see it.

Page 35317

1 Q. Okay. Well, our case is that there were Muslims held in the

2 Vuk Karadzic school, the hangar behind that school, and the stadium, all

3 of which are just down the street less than a five-minute walk from your

4 office in the municipality building where you were. And the Trial

5 Chamber has been there and done that walk. You agree with me it was that

6 distance away?

7 A. Yes.

8 Q. Okay. And you said in your testimony --

9 A. Yes, yes, I agree.

10 Q. All right. And you said that that night in your municipality

11 building less than five minutes away from these sites, you didn't hear

12 any shots. Didn't hear any gun-fire that night?

13 A. I can't recall exactly. Perhaps there was shooting, but I can't

14 confirm. I can't tell you where the shooting was coming from or

15 anything. Well, if I was in my office, I probably -- I didn't hear it,

16 for sure.

17 It is possible that there was shooting. And I'm not saying that

18 the shooting came from those facilities that you mentioned here. Maybe

19 people were shooting in the town itself --

20 Q. Yeah, let me ask you this: Is it normal when you're working in a

21 municipality building on paperwork getting ready, you know, getting your

22 documents ready for the next day's work to hear automatic weapon fire

23 from less than five minutes away? Wouldn't that be alarming?

24 A. Well, it would certainly be confusing had it been peacetime.

25 However, it was war time, and nothing was really surprising. If you

Page 35318

1 heard shooting, you wouldn't know who was shooting or why they were

2 shooting.

3 Q. Okay. So it's your testimony that you thought this could be

4 combat in Bratunac in the centre of town and that that would not be

5 alarming?

6 A. No. No, that's not what I'm claiming. I'm not saying it would

7 have had to be combat. People opened fire for no reason at all in our

8 parts. I'm not saying -- it is known that there were prisoners of war

9 there, but I'm saying that I did not see them and I did not hear that

10 someone was shooting. I didn't hear anyone shooting at the prisoners,

11 specifically. I wasn't there. I didn't --

12 Q. Okay. Okay. Well, as somebody born in Bratunac, who has lived

13 in Bratunac, and was in Bratunac in 1992, and knows that Bratunac had a

14 sad history of bringing Muslim prisoners to the Vuk Karadzic school to

15 the stadium and murdering them there, were you not kind of concerned

16 hearing automatic weapon fire when there are busloads of Muslims in your

17 town again, that perhaps a second layer of blood is going into the

18 floorboards of the Vuk Karadzic school lying on top of the 1992 layer of

19 blood?

20 A. I didn't hear your question quite well. I apologise. Perhaps

21 you could repeat it specifically.

22 Q. I'll make it --

23 A. I didn't understand. I did live there.

24 Q. Okay. Since you know the Muslims were killed in 1992 in the

25 Vuk Karadzic school and in the stadium, and you've got Muslims all over

Page 35319

1 Bratunac again in 1995, and you're hearing automatic weapons fire,

2 weren't you concerned as a responsible member of the Ministry of Defence

3 that there might be more murders going on?

4 A. At that moment, that was not my thinking. I didn't know that

5 there was any killing. I didn't know anything about any killing. Had I

6 known, I certainly would have been concerned.

7 Q. All right. Let me move on.

8 You called these critical days. There were busloads, and you've

9 seen some of them, in front of your municipality building of Muslims, you

10 said that they could have overpowered the guard. We've heard in this

11 trial and the view of people in Bratunac that the Muslims of Srebrenica

12 were dangerous, the 28th Division, and it's certainly true that Muslim

13 units left Srebrenica and committed crimes. You also said there were no

14 soldiers in the town. Now you're present, you were 41 years old. You

15 had a uniform. Are you sure that you didn't go and help guard the

16 prisoners, which would be the responsible thing for every man in Bratunac

17 who was able-bodied at that time with all the soldiers gone and most of

18 the police gone.

19 Is it more important to do paperwork than to protect your town?

20 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] I believe that this interpretation

21 could not -- cannot be understood by anyone. There is something wrong

22 with the interpretation.

23 MR. NICHOLLS: I'll ask it again very simply.

24 Q. Why would you not be guarding prisoners since there were no

25 soldiers and not many policemen and it's a critical day for Bratunac with

Page 35320

1 all these Muslims in town?

2 A. I was the chief of the Department of the Ministry of Defence. I

3 was a civilian. I was not military personnel. That's number one.

4 I had specific tasks. I could not deal with guarding buses and

5 prisoner of war, as you say. In those days, I had a task. My task was,

6 as I told you, to prepare the conscription papers and to send recruits to

7 their military -- tour of duty, military service.

8 Q. [Overlapping speakers]...

9 A. If I say that were no soldiers after the fall of Srebrenica --

10 may I go on?

11 Q. No, because if -- it's up to the Court, but you've answered my

12 question and I don't have that much time. Unless you're continue to

13 explain, I understand your answer is that you had your job which was not

14 to guard prisoners so you wouldn't do it, no matter what the conditions

15 in Bratunac?

16 A. That wasn't my job to guard them.

17 Q. Yeah. But part of the job, and we talked about it yesterday, of

18 civilian protection is cleaning up the terrain. Ljupko Ilic was in the

19 same building as you, and you knew the next morning, didn't you, that

20 bodies were found all over the town: at the stadium, at the playground,

21 inside and outside the Vuk Karadzic school, in the hangar?

22 A. It is correct that Ljupko Ilic worked in the same building and

23 that he was the one who informed me. I heard it from him personally that

24 several bodies had been found in the elementary school, Vuk Karadzic.

25 But as for the town itself or the playground, I don't know anything about

Page 35321

1 that.

2 Q. Zoran Petrovic-Pirocanac testified here. He's an independent

3 journalist from Belgrade. He was travelling with Ljubisa Borovcanin, who

4 I'm sure you know. He spent the night, Pirocanac, on the 13th of July in

5 Bratunac, and he saw - this is his testimony at T18817 of P00376, "a

6 truckload of Muslim corpses in the centre of town."

7 So a visiting journalist who doesn't even live there was able to

8 know more about the number of corpses than you and civilian protection.

9 A. I repeat, I was not in the civilian protection. Now, number two,

10 where Zoran Pirocanac was and where he saw that, I don't know. I'm not

11 denying that there were crimes. The whole world knows it, but I never

12 saw the crimes being committed or having been committed, except when I

13 passed through Kravica when I went there with the recruits, passing

14 through. And also in 1992. But you never asked me about that, where I

15 saw some dead bodies in the hangar.

16 Q. Yeah, we'll get to that. But then just to move on, I think we

17 can move to a new topic then.

18 You agree with me that you know and the whole world knows that on

19 the 13th of July 1995 there were crimes committed against Muslim

20 prisoners in Bratunac. That's what you just said; right?

21 Then we'll move on.

22 A. Please, I didn't say I knew back then what was going on. I said

23 nowadays the whole world knows what happened. But it wasn't until quite

24 some time after the 13th or the 14th that I found out we were talking

25 about a crime of massive proportions.

Page 35322

1 What I saw, I saw and on the 14th, at Kravica, dead bodies lying

2 outside the building there.

3 Q. All right.

4 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] May I?

5 The transcript has a lot of omissions. Page 10, line 1, he said:

6 "I didn't believe at the time that there had been any killings."

7 And not:

8 "I didn't know that there had been any killings."

9 And again page 10 -- I'm talking about page 10, line 1 now. And

10 here the witness said:

11 "It wasn't until quite some time after" -- or "long after." He

12 said "long after," not "quite some time after."

13 MR. NICHOLLS: All right. Thank you, Mr. Karadzic. I was going

14 to move on but let's just go back to that.

15 Q. How long is long after that you heard about the massive scale of

16 these crimes committed in your town and then later in Zvornik?

17 A. I don't know exactly. That summer. Later that summer perhaps.

18 But the figures being bandied about these days, over 7.000 people, well,

19 that wasn't until a lot later, months later, I guess.

20 Q. What about July 21st, 1995? You knew about a lot of killings

21 then, didn't you?

22 A. The 21st of July 199-

23 Q. Five.

24 A. One -- five, okay. 21st of July, 1995. Could you please try and

25 jog my memory because that really doesn't ring a bell.

Page 35323

1 Q. No, but by 21st of July, 1995, did you know about massive

2 killings in Bratunac and Kozluk?

3 A. In Bratunac? No, no.

4 Q. All right. I'll do it again.

5 MR. TIEGER: P04398, please.

6 Q. Sir, while that's coming up, you can't -- if you don't read

7 English, you won't be able to read it, but I'll just tell what you it is.

8 This is a British newspaper article from "The Independent" from

9 21st July, 1995. It's about your town and it's called: "Mass Slaughter

10 in a Bosnian Field Knee Deep in Blood." And very quickly, there's been

11 testimony in this case -- the way this information was obtained is that

12 an American journalist parked -- he couldn't get into Bratunac so he

13 parked in Serbia across -- on -- in Ljubovija, across Ljubovija iron

14 bridge towards Bratunac, and he talked to women who were crossing into

15 Serbia to do their shopping.

16 And what he learned and published on the 21st of July was that

17 Serbian women, both residents of Serbia and Bratunac, came across and

18 told him through an interpreter that they were murdering Muslims in

19 Bratunac. One of them said her brother-in-law told her that he and his

20 friends are quite open about what is going on the women said. They are

21 killing Muslim soldiers. One of the women described the main execution

22 site as a playground in Bratunac and said it was terrible. These women

23 said the places were people being killed - this is on page 2 of the

24 English, please - were a playground, also described as a stadium, and at

25 a school, that's the Vuk Karadzic school right by your office, and some

Page 35324

1 kind of warehouse, probably the hangar behind your school or the

2 warehouse, and a dump truck full of corpses being parked near Bratunac.

3 So -- and that testimony -- that -- those articles have been

4 corroborated by our witnesses.

5 So it's your testimony that housewives from Serbia and house

6 wives from Bratunac knew more than you did about the killings in Bratunac

7 in July?

8 A. These housewives claim they knew. Who knows if they knew? I

9 didn't know myself, and I can't claim that I knew if in fact I didn't

10 know. These massive crimes, the 21st of July, nor did I see that

11 happening nor do I actually remember that anything like that happened in

12 Bratunac. I don't remember anything like that, and I can be certain

13 about one thing: I witnessed no such thing. There may have been the odd

14 dead body, but the unit in charge of sanitation was probably picking

15 those up and taking them away as they went along. But I can't say that I

16 witnessed something that I factually did not see.

17 Q. I didn't say you witnessed it. I said this is a small town.

18 Everyone knew what was going on. I'll move on.

19 The 14th of July, this is the next morning, you're driving your

20 recruits to Zvornik; right?

21 A. Yes, that's right.

22 Q. And this is around noon in the morning; right? Or a bit earlier.

23 A. Probably. Between 10.00 and 12.00. But I'm not sure. Normally

24 we'd be setting out at about 10.00 but we may have set out about 11.00

25 that day, but that was general time of day, departure from Bratunac.

Page 35325

1 Q. Okay. Well, and you see -- this is in your statement, you see a

2 huge number of corpses at the Kravica warehouse.

3 A. No, not the warehouse. Not in the warehouse. Outside the

4 warehouse. I never left the bus in order to go into the warehouse.

5 Q. I said at the warehouse. I didn't mean you went in.

6 Now Jovan Nikolic is testifying either later today or tomorrow,

7 and he was present, he will he say, at the Kravica warehouse on the 14th

8 while the executions were going on. And that was about 11.00 a.m.

9 So you drive by a scene either of an execution or immediately

10 afterwards; right?

11 A. I never directly witnessed an execution. When I happened upon

12 that spot, I realised that there was quite a crowd. Many soldiers

13 milling about and the bus was moving at a very slow pace, halting along

14 the way. There is the perimeter wall of the co-op building and there

15 were very many bodies lying there. When I think back, I realise that it

16 was a huge shock to me and particularly to those young men who were with

17 me, aged no more than 18. I figure there must have been at least between

18 200 and 300 bodies lying there piled about a metre and a half high. At

19 first I thought it was firewood stacked up against the wall when I first

20 cast a glance in that direction, and then I realised what it was. So it

21 really left a horrible impression upon us.

22 Q. Yeah. And there were a lot of soldiers there too, you said. You

23 said there were so many that it was hard to drive through? That's in

24 paragraph 40 of your statement. Soldiers in different uniforms.

25 Correct?

Page 35326

1 A. Yes. Different uniforms for the most part. Military,

2 camouflage. I couldn't tell the insignia.

3 The last time I testified in the Blagojevic case, I clearly said

4 although I hail from Bratunac and my job requires a certain knowledge of

5 people and military files, at least a thousand --

6 Q. Let me stop you -- yeah, you're going to say that you didn't

7 recognise anybody from Bratunac there; right?

8 A. That's right.

9 Q. Okay. Save you some time. Giving everybody in Bratunac an

10 alibi.

11 Now, you're driving past these soldiers. You're going slowly so

12 you can't even go quickly. Why don't you stop, roll down the window, and

13 say, "What the hell is going on here"? Because that wasn't your job

14 either?

15 A. I had my own assignment to hand over those men at the collection

16 centre Zvornik at a given predetermined time. From there they were to be

17 taken to three different locations, some to Bijeljina, some to

18 Banja Luka, Banjaca, Kalinovik.

19 Q. Let me stop you. I'm --

20 A. I couldn't afford to be late.

21 Q. I'm not asking where those recruits were and I know you didn't

22 want to be late, but then let me just be -- make it clear, make sure I

23 understand: This is about 15 minutes from Bratunac, from your town,

24 there are hundreds of dead bodies lined up, soldiers there, and it's more

25 important for you to get the troops to -- to Zvornik, not be five minutes

Page 35327

1 late, than just stop and figure out who's been murdered and who's

2 committed crime or what's going; right? You're looking at your watch and

3 saying, Oh, no, don't want to be late.

4 THE INTERPRETER: Could Mr. Nicholls kindly speak into the other

5 microphone.

6 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Well, not quite. First of all, I

7 was too scared to go out and face all those armed men there. There were

8 so many dead bodies lying around and I was responsible for this group of

9 young men who were with me.

10 When my task in Zvornik was completed I drove back, and at about

11 2.00 that afternoon I went to the municipality headquarters to tell them

12 what I'd seen. And they said they'd been long informed about that

13 because Jovan Nikolic from the local co-op had told them all about it.

14 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] May I just ask one thing?

15 I don't think I would be allowed to make the kind of comment that

16 was made, for example, at page 16. So I'm asking myself is Mr. Nicholls

17 perhaps enjoying some sort of special privilege here? Lines 24 and 25,

18 page 16 specifically.

19 JUDGE KWON: Let's continue.

20 Do you like me to ask the witness to answer with respect to that

21 comment?

22 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] No, no.

23 JUDGE KWON: Let's continue.

24 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] I'm just trying to say -- I was

25 cautioned on a regular basis.

Page 35328

1 JUDGE KWON: Let's leave it there.

2 How many more minutes do you need, Mr. Nicholls, to conclude?

3 MR. NICHOLLS: Maybe five, if I may, Your Honour.

4 JUDGE KWON: Very well. Please continue.

5 MR. NICHOLLS:

6 Q. Very quickly. Please answer this yes or no. Do you know that in

7 September of 1995 there was a massive operation to move the bodies of the

8 victims from the Kravica warehouse where they'd been buried initially in

9 Glogova to another location?

10 A. It wasn't until long after that I became aware of this. Much

11 later, we heard about the operation to move the bodies. But I don't know

12 when exactly or, indeed, where the bodies were taken to. Frankly, I

13 prefer to hear no evil and see no evil.

14 Q. Yeah. Okay. Let's move on quickly to 1992.

15 In your statement to the RS MUP in 2005 --

16 MR. NICHOLLS: That's 65 ter 24748. If I could have it up,

17 please.

18 While it's coming up, do you remember giving a statement on the

19 26th of December, 2005, at the Bijeljina police?

20 A. The Bratunac police.

21 Q. Oh, sorry.

22 A. The Security Services Centre from Bijeljina inspector was the

23 person who took my interview.

24 Q. Correct. So you remember this statement?

25 A. I remember giving a statement.

Page 35329

1 Q. Yeah.

2 A. So please, go ahead.

3 Q. Yeah. And you were cautioned and you agreed to tell the truth in

4 this statement; correct?

5 A. Correct.

6 Q. All right.

7 MR. NICHOLLS: If we could go to page 3 of the English, page 2 of

8 the Serbian.

9 Q. And we can't see it on the top of the page, but from page 2 it

10 started that sentence:

11 "The commander was a certain Peki, the group consisted of 10 to

12 15 men but later grew bigger." That's about the Vukovar group.

13 But you stated:

14 "I think that there aim was to scare the Muslim population and to

15 pressure them to leave which they partially succeeded in because later

16 they rounded up, maltreated, and killed Muslims, so at that time a major

17 exodus of Muslims from Bratunac took place."

18 And then you say, after the killing of Zoran Zekic:

19 "Following this, as far as I know, Miroslav Deronjic, the then

20 Bratunac SO Crisis Staff president, led armed men to the village of

21 Glogova for that attack."

22 So these Muslims did not leave voluntarily or of their on free

23 will. There was a major exodus because they were pressured and because

24 they were scared; correct?

25 A. What I said in that statement at the time still holds true.

Page 35330

1 Q. Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

2 A. And it is what I said.

3 Q. Thank you. Let me move on.

4 A. It is a -- may I?

5 Q. I've only got a very limited time.

6 Now if we could have your 2003 statement up. That's 65 ter

7 24747. It's another statement of yours to the MUP. If we could look at

8 page 3 of the English. Also page 3 of the Serbian.

9 You state:

10 "The municipal authorities, the Crisis Staff opposed such conduct

11 on the part of paramilitary groups and decided to expel the group from

12 the municipality, and from what I heard the decision was transmitted to

13 the police" --

14 THE INTERPRETER: Kindly read slowly, please. Thank you.

15 MR. NICHOLLS:

16 Q. -- "... to the police station and for the police to implement it.

17 However, because new paramilitary groups kept coming in, the police was

18 not strong enough to implement the decision. I also don't know who

19 organised protest meetings by citizens against implementing the decision.

20 A large protest rally was held in the centre of town. Citizens protested

21 over the adopted decision to expel paramilitary groups, and I remember

22 that they shouted slogans along the lines of: 'Are you going to expel

23 our liberators?'"

24 And your brother testified about this yesterday. He said:

25 "Well, the authorities were never quite receptive of the

Page 35331

1 paramilitary units," and described how the authorities thought they

2 should be expelled.

3 "However, these paramilitary units had support of the population,

4 so these people rallied outside the municipal building and did not

5 allow -- or rather expressed their support for the paramilitary units."

6 So the paramilitary units took part in expelling the Muslim

7 population that was supported by the local Serb people of Bratunac and it

8 was a factor in the police and the authorities not expelling these units,

9 correct?

10 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] May we -- may we have a reference?

11 Where were the people in favour of expelling the Muslims? All the people

12 were in favour of is not being expelled themselves. So the --

13 MR. NICHOLLS: That is, I think, an unfair comment to my

14 question. It's very clear from his brother's statement yesterday and

15 this that when the -- that the Muslims were expelling and forcing the --

16 the paramilitaries were killing the Muslims and forcing them to leave out

17 of fear and that there was a big demonstration in Bratunac in favour of

18 not taking action against the paramilitaries.

19 So my question was fair.

20 JUDGE KWON: So could you repeat your question, Mr. Nicholls.

21 MR. NICHOLLS:

22 Q. These paramilitary units took part in forcing the Muslim

23 population to leave; correct?

24 A. The paramilitary units in those days were taking people in,

25 taking in Muslims and killing them. There had already been too much of

Page 35332

1 that going on at the hangar. Many people were locked up in the

2 elementary school gym as well where they were tortured, beaten up, and

3 killed.

4 Q. Okay. Okay. Let me --

5 A. And then the dead bodies were taken to the hangar.

6 If I may just complete this, please.

7 And people were well and truly sick of all this. They could no

8 longer go on watching it or indeed putting up with it. The Crisis Staff,

9 concerned by what was going on, one night took the decision to simply

10 expel them. And also that units of the JNA which at the time was a

11 regular military force, joined by the Territorial Defence, would be the

12 only remaining armed structures dealing with military and defence-related

13 issues.

14 However, the police, being gradually outnumbered by the

15 paramilitaries at the time, was in no position to stand up to them. On

16 top of that, quite a large number of women, particularly grieving

17 mothers, the mothers of Serbs who were killed because mass expulsions of

18 the Serb population had begun also. The burning of Serbian villages.

19 And they took to the street to speak up in favour of their liberators, as

20 they said. That's how they defined the paramilitaries.

21 So that there simply wasn't enough determination to eventually

22 drive them out. That is my interpretation.

23 Q. If I could ask one more question, which is a yes or no question:

24 And the JNA units that were there were of the regular army and

25 the TO units that were there and the MUP never got together as one force

Page 35342

1 please.

2 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I solemnly declare that I will

3 speak the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

4 WITNESS: STEVO PASALIC

5 [Witness answered through interpreter]

6 JUDGE KWON: Thank you, Dr. Pasalic. Please make yourself

7 comfortable.

8 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Thank you.

9 JUDGE KWON: Yes, Mr. Karadzic.

10 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

11 Examination by Mr. Karadzic:

12 Q. [Interpretation] Good morning, Dr. Pasalic.

13 A. Good morning.

14 Q. Let me ask you to briefly state your full name, your father's

15 name, and when and where you were born.

16 A. My name is Stevo Pasalic. My father's name was Radivoje. I was

17 born in 1951 at Vozuca in Bosnia-Hercegovina.

18 Q. Thank you. Your curriculum vitae is part of this report. The

19 Trial Chamber may decide it as a separate document, though. But at any

20 rate, we don't have to go into details.

21 Please tell the Trial Chamber for the sake of the public a few

22 words about your educational background.

23 A. After finishing primary school, I graduated from secondary

24 teacher training school. Then the teacher training college at

25 Slavonski Brod. And, after that, the Faculty of Mathematics in Novi Sad.

Page 35343

1 Then I also graduated from post-graduate studies in Belgrade, and I

2 obtained a doctoral title at the Faculty of Science at Novi Sad.

3 Q. I don't think that your last sentence was interpreted.

4 A. Should I repeat -- should I repeat?

5 Q. Yes, please. And please let me remind you that we should speak

6 slowly and pause between question and answer long enough for the

7 interpretation that you can see on the screen stops.

8 You mentioned the narrow profiles in your education. What was

9 your specialisation? What did you specialise in, in your education?

10 A. Yes. In my education there are also specialised profiles, and

11 mine is demography and social geography which falls in the scope of

12 subjects studied at the Faculty of Science.

13 Q. Thank you. Please remind us of what we already have in your CV.

14 How many scientific papers or professional papers you published overall?

15 A. Our scientific work is evaluated based on books published, papers

16 published, then professional papers that were published, or by

17 participation in professional projects, or by acting as mentors for

18 doctoral candidates.

19 I authored 12 books, which is a lot for a professor, two-thirds

20 of which were from -- were in the area of demography and the rest in

21 social geography or dealt with interaction between tourism and

22 population. My scientific works were published and fall into two

23 categories: Those of national significance and those of international

24 significance. Those that are most highly valued are -- were the ones

25 published on the SCI list. I also presented papers at international

Page 35344

1 conferences or national conferences. There are dozens of such papers.

2 I can't list them all.

3 I also was the leader of about a dozen national -- scientific

4 projects, most of which dealt with applied demography in

5 Bosnia-Herzegovina.

6 I also authored many works about the application of the subject

7 matter at schools or other works that were contracted for a specific

8 purpose.

9 Q. Thank you. What academic position did you reach? And are you in

10 any academic for -- or do you hold any academic title now?

11 A. Yes. It is a well-known fact that professors have to climb up a

12 defined ladder. I started as assistant lecturer and then I became a

13 senior lecturer. After that, associate professor, and now a full

14 professor. And I cover a specialised area which is demography and social

15 geography.

16 This title is permanent and you're appointed for life. I was

17 also invited to become a member of the Academy of Sciences of the RS, or

18 also other organisations in Bosnia-Herzegovina, such as the --

19 THE INTERPRETER: Could the witness please repeat the last part

20 of his answer?

21 JUDGE KWON: Doctor, could you repeat your last part of your

22 answer.

23 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Yes. I was invited to other

24 institutions such as the Agency for the Development of Higher Education

25 of Bosnia-Herzegovina as part -- as member of the board, and I'm also

Page 35345

1 member of the senate of the university in east Sarajevo. This is my

2 second term in office there. And I was also elected to the Committee of

3 Demography and Statistics of the Academy of Sciences of the RS. These

4 are my other titles or positions, apart from my position as full

5 professor at the university.

6 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

7 Q. Thank you. Were you ever commended or decorated for your

8 professional achievements?

9 A. Yes. I was awarded several times in my academic career, but

10 the -- I got these awards only for scientific and educational work, which

11 are the two main lines in higher education in line with the

12 Bologna Declaration.

13 The last award I received was in 2012 for my contribution to

14 science, culture, and sport, and I was decorated by the Njegos Medal of

15 the First Order which is awarded by the president of the

16 Republika Srpska. This is one of the highest decorations for scientific

17 work. There are also decorations for other achievements.

18 Q. It wasn't recorded what kind of decoration you received.

19 A. It was the Njegos Medal of the First Order. There is also a

20 second order and third order Njegos medal.

21 Q. Please tell me two things: What is your direct insight in the

22 war time events; and where were you during the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina?

23 A. I was born in Bosnia-Herzegovina and grew up there. I worked

24 there, lived there, and I spent the whole war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. My

25 only task during the war was to collect data about any demographic

Page 35346

1 changes and processes in the area I had access to, of course, because in

2 Bosnia-Herzegovina you couldn't move about freely during the war.

3 I collected very valuable experiences that I can present here

4 today. These were empirical scientific investigations or, rather,

5 research, which went on for 20 years. This is extremely significant.

6 Unless you were directly involved in such field-work, this is something

7 you cannot acquire through any other means of education.

8 Q. And the last question before the break, please tell us about your

9 forensic experiences. Did you ever testify before any courts; if, so,

10 which courts and in which cases?

11 A. I can say that I was involved both directly and indirectly. I

12 was involved in the most direct way before this Tribunal in May 2011 in

13 the Stanisic/Zupljanin case, when my demographic expert report was fully

14 admitted by the Trial Chamber, which I consider a great success in my

15 scientific work.

16 Likewise, in Bosnia-Herzegovina, when it comes to demographic

17 research that had to do with the war time events, my -- the results of my

18 work have been or will be used.

19 Q. Thank you, Dr. Pasalic.

20 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Your Excellencies, I note the time.

21 Perhaps you have already decided about the break.

22 JUDGE KWON: Yes, we'll have a break for half an hour.

23 We will resume at 4 past 11.00.

24 [The witness stands down]

25 --- Recess taken at 10.35 a.m.

Page 35347

1 --- On resuming at 11.05 a.m.

2 JUDGE KWON: Yes, Mr. Karadzic. Please continue.

3 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

4 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

5 Q. Dr. Pasalic, would you please tell the Trial Chamber what you

6 were asked to do by the Defence in this case -- or for the purposes of

7 this case.

8 A. For the purposes of this case, I tried to show in a very complex

9 way the demographic movements in the area of Bosnia and Herzegovina

10 during the war, before the war, and also the effects after the war. But

11 before that, I analysed in detail and provided a critical analysis on the

12 expert opinions of primarily the -- the expert Ewa Tabeau, and then I

13 researched in detail the sources and the methodological process which are

14 the two cornerstones for any expert report of this nature.

15 Then I presented my own findings that I arrived at by using a

16 completely different scientific method and methodological process,

17 whereby I wanted to show that there are other approaches in scientific

18 research and investigation so that we can see whether the results would

19 be the same or whether they would differ, which, for me, is very

20 important in this work of mine.

21 And, finally, but not least important, I wanted to show with my

22 report this complex picture of -- that had changed as a result of the war

23 but that would have changed even absent the war, which is an interesting

24 approach because you follow events that are caused or the result of war

25 developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina, for instance, but you also want

Page 35348

1 to see what would happen if there was no such war, so you simply try to

2 observe all of this and then compare it with all available data.

3 So, in brief, this would be the outcome of my research and this

4 is what the Defence primarily wanted to -- wanted me to present.

5 Q. Thank you. By separating phenomena that would have happened even

6 if there had been no war and isolating phenomena that happened as a

7 result of the war, what you did accomplish in this way?

8 A. It is very significance when preparing a complex research paper,

9 especially in demography, to be well acquainted with a tendency of a

10 phenomenon in a case like this. So even before the war time events,

11 during the war, and after the war, you need to look at how this

12 phenomenon continues after the war, and then you can come to a more

13 complete picture and factual information, and then would you get a more

14 precise historical picture. If you were not to proceed in this way, you

15 would get erroneous statistics and a false historical picture, and that

16 would not be satisfactory for the needs of any scientific research.

17 Now, what have I done in this case? I prepared a retrospective

18 of demographic developments in Bosnia-Herzegovina from 1948 - which was

19 the first census after World War II - up until 1991, which was the last

20 census taken in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and today 20 years later there is

21 still no new census. And I observed the tendency of the movements of the

22 population which were quite marked even in peacetime, even at the time

23 when Bosnia and Herzegovina was -- had the highest rate of development in

24 the economy and science and cultural.

25 Now toward the end -- what did we observe? Toward the end of the

Page 35349

1 war, Bosnia and Herzegovina completely changed the character of its

2 population. Before the war, it had entered the so-called transition

3 period, like all the other developing countries in the world, which was

4 the result primarily of the birth rate and the deaths of the population.

5 The birth rate was falling and dropping, where now in Bosnia and

6 Herzegovina the birth rate was the highest in the former Yugoslavia since

7 1948 on -- and onwards, and then there was this complete change, and I

8 can prove this. I can show data here that there was a fall in the birth

9 rate and in 1991, overall for Bosnia and Herzegovina, it can be

10 considered relatively high.

11 However, it is more significant to observe it as a differentiated

12 natality or rate of birth, because then you can see that the natural

13 birth rate was 14 mils, so to translate: 14 children would be born in

14 1.000 people of the Muslim population --

15 THE INTERPRETER: Interpreter's request: Could the witness

16 please step back and repeat his last part.

17 JUDGE KWON: Doctor, could you repeat from the part you referred

18 to 14 mils.

19 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Yes, of course.

20 Not 14 millions. These are relative data that are expressed in

21 vital statistics in mils, which means a thousandth portion of something.

22 In other words, the Muslim population in 1991 had the birth rate of 14

23 children per 1.000 inhabitants in the Muslim population. So we say 14

24 mils and that's what it means.

25 Now the Serb population had the -- the birth rate was twice as

Page 35350

1 small, so it was 7 mils; 7 children in 1.000 of the population; and the

2 Croat was 8 mils. Now, I want to stress that this information is very

3 important when we look at the structure of the population by age, and I

4 believe that we will get to that later during the day.

5 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

6 Q. Thank you. How does this affect the strata of the combat-ready

7 population or the able-bodied population in relation to the participation

8 of the underage members of the population, and how does that differ among

9 the different groups, the Muslims, Croats, and Serbs?

10 A. What noticed is that the Prosecutor, the OTP experts did not deal

11 with these variables although they are significant. There is one

12 population - the Muslim population - that has a very high birth rate

13 of -- so there is a large participation of the youth population, meaning

14 under the age of 18, whereas this picture is quite different for the

15 Serbs and the Croats.

16 So this gives a completely different picture within the

17 structures of these populations which will have an affect also in the war

18 time conditions, including in some civilian jobs areas. I could not say

19 perhaps with detail what that -- how that reflected in the background in

20 terms of the military use and on the front line, but this data is a

21 variable that significantly affects the overall presentation of the

22 population at that period.

23 Q. Thank you. Would you tell the Trial Chamber what was the

24 percentage of minors in the Muslim, Serb, and Croat ethnic group,

25 respectively?

Page 35351

1 A. Basically we all use apocryphal figures. There's no one in

2 Bosnia and Herzegovina, including OTP experts, who would have explicit

3 data about this. But if we draw an analogy to this information, the

4 percentage or the representation of the minors is far greater in the

5 Muslim population as opposed to the Serb or Croat populations. That, of

6 course, also depended on the local authorities and the way that they

7 recruited minors, even minors 17 or 16 years of age that were recruited

8 by the Muslim authorities at the time. But, in any case, there is a far

9 greater proportion of those in the Muslim population.

10 Q. Thank you. Could you tell us how this would reflect or whether

11 this would have an effect on the estimation of the losses of the

12 able-bodied population and why is it important, in other words, to

13 establish what the percentage of able-bodied men or population there is

14 in each of these ethnic groups?

15 A. That is a very significant question. I noticed that the OTP

16 experts, when they made this differentiation between combat -- combatants

17 and non-combatants, they did not use this qualification or -- which is

18 more interesting. They did not have data for the entire population.

19 So how can you make a differentiation? How can you distinguish

20 civilians from soldiers if you're not -- if you don't have information on

21 the entire population? So this is quite absurd for the purposes of

22 certain studies. They used information that was secondary or tertiary

23 and quite unreliable. So there is a great difference and various

24 information were used from research to research, and you could even say

25 that it's amateurish when doing this kind of work.

Page 35352

1 Q. Thank you. I would like to go back to the -- to the tendencies

2 that you observed. What did you observe, what were the natural

3 tendencies in Bosnia and Herzegovina or trends in the population

4 movements in Bosnia and Herzegovina before the war and during the war?

5 A. There is a rule that says in order to know the present, you have

6 to know the past very well and have a vision of the future.

7 Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the ethnodemographic sense, is a very

8 complex area. If we look at the history, it is the most complex

9 demographic area in the former Yugoslavia, and whoever wishes to obtain

10 valid research and valid results must know the historical makeup or the

11 historical character. The people of Bosnia and Herzegovina were a

12 historic part of that country.

13 Now the largest per cent of the Serb population tended to leave

14 for Croatia and migrate to Serbia. The Croat population migrated to

15 Croatia, whereas the Muslim population tended to remain in place or

16 perhaps migrate to Sandzak or Turkey or some other areas. As a result,

17 in the late 1980s, Bosnia and Herzegovina lost annually through

18 immigration 15- to 17.000 people; in other words, they left that part of

19 the country. This was on an annual basis, which means that in a period

20 of ten years, that is up to 200.000 people. Now, bearing in mind that

21 these were the vital category of the population, usually between 20 and

22 40 years of age, in other words this is a reproductive category, a

23 fertile category that could still produce off spring, that was very

24 significant.

25 Now these were the trends before the war, even -- now had it --

Page 35353

1 had the war not happened, these trends would have continued to a certain

2 degree. Because the war broke out, they were only generated further and

3 they were somewhat intensified. Let's put it that way. And the proof of

4 that is that when we look at the end of the war, we see that the trend of

5 leaving Bosnia and Herzegovina continues, and if everything is

6 summarised, in the 20 years from 1991 to 2011, Bosnia and Herzegovina

7 lost 90.000 [as interpreted] people, not as victims of war but through

8 the loss of the birth rate and the migrations, and, of course, indirect

9 victims of war.

10 Q. When you say "15- to 17.000," is that the ratio between

11 immigration and migrations or is it just the people who were leaving or

12 otherwise?

13 A. I will answer your question, but I notice that there is an error

14 in the interpretation. It's not 90.000. It is 900.000 people.

15 Q. Thank you.

16 A. Now talking about the migration losses, this is what we would

17 call the migration ratio which is obviously negative. In other words,

18 those who came to Bosnia and Herzegovina, minus those who left, the

19 result is 15- to 17.000 less people coming than going. But Bosnia tended

20 to be a -- tended to be the part of the country of the former Yugoslavia

21 where people tend -- more people tended to leave than come to reside

22 there.

23 Q. Thank you. Do you have any information as to where the

24 population that came to Bosnia and Herzegovina - that immigrated into

25 Bosnia and Herzegovina - where did they settle and what ethnic background

Page 35354

1 were they?

2 A. It is well known that the trend is primarily the Bosniak

3 population, because there was a higher rate of their arrival into Bosnia

4 and Herzegovina as opposed to their leaving Bosnia and Herzegovina, as

5 opposed to the Serb population.

6 Now as for the distribution, these -- this population mostly

7 settled in urban areas or close to large rivers where the density of the

8 population was the highest, whereas the traditional Serb population was,

9 for the main part, distributed in the mountainous areas.

10 Q. Thank you. Should we then assume or conclude that the

11 demographic ratio would depend on the ethnic background?

12 A. Most certainly. It most certainly would. And we can here invoke

13 our primary sources, the most primary sources available.

14 Ever since the 1970s, last century, what was then the Muslim

15 population and the Bosniak population started becoming the dominant

16 population group in Bosnia for reasons of migration but also because of

17 the increasing birth-rates. At the same time, the Serbian ethnic group

18 in particular and the Croatian ethnic group were leaving more and more

19 for Serbia and Croatia respectively, thereby suffering losses in terms of

20 the demographic share. Both in relative ratio and the absolute ratio,

21 their numbers, in terms of the overall share, ethnic share in

22 Bosnia-Herzegovina, were on the wane.

23 Q. Thank you very much. People moving in and settling, the Muslim

24 immigrants settling in cities, specifically, and towns, how did that

25 affect distribution of the population in terms of urban and rural

Page 35355

1 factors? Who predominated in the cities and towns and who predominated

2 in the rural areas?

3 A. It's very simple phenomenon after World War II. In the bigger

4 cities and towns the Muslim population tended to be predominant,

5 Sarajevo, Tuzla, Zenica, Bihac, and so on and so forth. The Serbs

6 predominated in terms of numbers in Banja Luka alone of the major cities

7 and the Croats only in Mostar. But if you look at how these cities and

8 towns and their populations evolved, this is a trend of constant

9 expansion. That applies throughout the world and also in Bosnia and

10 Herzegovina.

11 So predominantly the population of the larger cities and towns

12 was Muslim. Traditionally and historically the Serbs tended to settle in

13 mountainous areas. That is part of their tradition and that is how they

14 held on to their property also, because the Serbs tended to own such

15 property in these areas that was then handed down from generation to

16 generation which created strong links to these areas that were not urban

17 areas. It's still obvious 15 to 16 years after the war, the Muslims tend

18 to focus on the cities and towns unlike the other two group, particularly

19 the Serb group which tends to be in small villages or in entirely rural

20 areas. These are historical processes. There's nothing subjective about

21 them. It's all about facts, incontrovertible facts.

22 Q. Thank you. You say that before the war ever happened there were

23 certain trends in terms of people coming into the country and people

24 leaving the country and the general ratio was negative at the level of

25 Bosnia-Herzegovina as a whole.

Page 35356

1 What about the trends before the war, specifically in Bosnia and

2 Herzegovina, and what exactly went on?

3 A. Needless to say, as I pointed out already, the demographic trends

4 were not suddenly triggered by something at the beginning of the war.

5 These trends go back a long way in history but became particularly

6 prominent, carrying to the fore, in other words, in the latter half of

7 the 20th century when the whole world began to explode in demographic

8 terms.

9 So in relation to the number of inhabitants in 1941, the increase

10 by 1991 was 71 per cent. The overall population. In Macedonia, we had

11 the only figure that actually exceeded the BH figure. That was 76

12 per cent increase. So these were large-scale sudden changes and the

13 population moves about internally. So these internal migrations

14 definitely affected the distribution in terms of specific regions and

15 areas within the country. Even before the war you had the

16 Sarajevo-Zenica lowlands, predominantly Muslim, and then the Bihac region

17 or the Tuzla region. The -- the lowlands in the north-east of

18 Bosnia-Herzegovina, the low lying areas. You also had the Serb

19 population which tended to remain in the north-east. Mixed population in

20 Central Bosnia for the most part, Muslims and Serbs combining in that

21 particular area, although the Serbs constituted a minority there were

22 also some Croats in those areas as well. Eastern Bosnia for the most

23 part mixed population, Serbs and Muslims in this case, with a purely

24 symbolic number of Croats living there as well.

25 So this was the process that was in progress at the time. We

Page 35357

1 call it the ethnic and territorial homogenisation. It's a technical

2 term. My research proves that the process is ongoing to this very day,

3 and if you look at the population groups shifting in terms of internal

4 migration from one area of the country to another, it just goes to show

5 that the process is still in progress, the ethnic and territorial

6 homogenisation. Sarajevo has over 90 per cent Bosniaks today; Mostar is

7 divided into the Muslim half and the Croatian half; Banja Luka

8 predominantly Serb, so is Bijeljina; Zenica is predominantly Muslim;

9 Tuzla also predominantly Muslim; and so on and so forth.

10 So that is the process that we refer to as the ethnic and

11 territorial homogenisation which is not yet completed. It still goes on.

12 Q. Thank you. Can we forget about the war for the moment. Can you

13 try and tell us what this phenomenon looked like before the war. Was the

14 trend perceived and who went where in terms of internal migrations within

15 Bosnia and Herzegovina?

16 A. As I've pointed out already, if we forget about the war for a

17 moment, there are certain ethnic areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina

18 throughout one of the three groups was predominant. It is a generally

19 known fact that eastern Herzegovina is predominantly Croat. If -- if

20 anything, the figures had been boosted by more Croats coming into the

21 area making their ethnic predominance even grater.

22 If you look at the large important river valley, the

23 Sarajevo-Zenica valley, the Gorazde area also, the Bihac-Krajina area, or

24 some other areas in Central Bosnia all are all predominantly Muslim. Had

25 it not been for the war, they would have held onto these areas,

Page 35358

1 obviously, in terms of ethnic predominance.

2 The Serb ethnic areas are more extensive but not as densely

3 populated we might say because the absolute numbers in terms of overall

4 population were smaller in relation to the Muslims. So that is the area

5 that we normally refer to as the Krajina with Banja Luka at its centre.

6 And then you have Eastern Bosnia, the Semberija area, parts of the Drina

7 river valley - eastern Hercegovina in particular - traditionally the

8 population there is predominantly Serb.

9 As for Central Bosnia, this area tended to have more of a mix in

10 terms of the population there, the Muslims always being the predominating

11 group.

12 I am trying to put together some sort of retrospective for you in

13 terms of the trends before the war, and then try to imagine a situation

14 in which the war did not happen at all. What exactly would have

15 happened? I wish we had an ethnic map in front of us so that I could

16 point it out for you and that we could all follow visually.

17 Q. Had it not been for the war, would there have been more mingling

18 between the various groups or do you think the ethnic and territorial

19 homogenisation would have gone on unhindered?

20 A. If you look at the factors of history, there are a lot of

21 important factors in a complex area such as Bosnia-Hercegovina. These

22 all point to one fact: Incontrovertibly, the homogenisation process

23 would have gone on unhindered and the ethnically pure areas would have

24 further solidified, which does not mean that relations between the groups

25 would necessarily have deteriorated. But we're talking about a type of

Page 35359

1 traditionalism here. So that is why I'm adamant one must know the

2 history of this region in order to be able to monitor these trends all

3 way up to the present day.

4 Q. Thank you very much. I would now ask you to please explain the

5 importance of information sources and the nature of information. The

6 sources that you used or in a comparative sense the sources used by OTP

7 experts.

8 Can you tell us about any similarities or differences that you

9 found in terms of relevance?

10 A. This is one of the most important issues brought up in our

11 reports, the expert report of the OTP, on the one hand, and our own on

12 the other.

13 As I said a while ago, when we talk about reports of this nature

14 there are two cornerstones: The sources on the one hand and the

15 methodology on the other. The sources, the methodology. You have the

16 OTP on the one hand and you have us on the other. There are differences

17 between the two.

18 So it was particularly interesting to see whose information would

19 look more valid. What do I mean when I say information sources? There

20 are so-called primary sources. The most relevant sources, the most valid

21 sources. In as far as you have any access to those, those are the first

22 that you must invoke. You get your information from a primary source.

23 Just by way of an example, a good example of a primary source

24 would be the census, although many objections can be made to the way the

25 census was conducted in BH in 1991, or, indeed, to any use of the 1991

Page 35360

1 census as the primary source of information, which we state clearly in

2 our report. We even went as far as the quotes of the expert reports

3 previously produced by the OTP. That information was then processed or

4 indeed published following the 1991 census. Yet in our reports, we were

5 able to get this information but not before 1998. Therefore, we decided

6 to use the reports. But that is a huge shortcoming for the OTP expert

7 report because they failed to use a principal primarily source of

8 information like that at all. They used imaginary forms and calculations

9 which will hardly give you the real picture of the situation.

10 OTP experts for the most part found themselves using secondary

11 information sources. What type of information can you derive from that?

12 You can use that type of information as a supplement, as something to

13 supplement your primary information, simply because the relevance is not

14 there.

15 Secondary information was not generated by official authorised

16 institutions such as the statistics bureau or some state bodies. We can

17 specify exactly what is involved in that type of work in

18 Bosnia-Herzegovina, but here is an example: The 1997/1998 census lists.

19 And then two key sources of information for the OTP, the 1991 census, and

20 the 1997/1998 list. They use what is called a matching or

21 cross-referencing method which yields a sea of figures but fails to

22 deliver a realistic portrait of what actually went on in the area.

23 Unlike the OTP reports, the one that we drew up ourselves, we

24 took a totally different approach. We tried to go and seek out other

25 primary sources of information. So the most authoritative institutions

Page 35361

1 will produce these sources, and the most authoritative individuals,

2 researchers looking into the question. I'm talking about the census, of

3 course. I used those sources. I picked out a number of variables and

4 opted for a totally different method in terms of how I went about

5 calculating the information and the phenomena which was in stark contrast

6 to the approach taken by the OTP expert. Necessarily, the results

7 diverged. The one advantage of our report is we used primary information

8 sources. These are available and I'm in a position to present some of

9 them here today.

10 I would like to have an opportunity, if I'm allowed one, to use

11 some examples to show how this type of information is calculated in

12 relation to single municipalities, and this is information that is

13 actually used in the Karadzic case.

14 Q. Thank you. You are doing an excellent job simplifying these

15 complex matters so that we might be better able to understand what you

16 are saying.

17 But can you tell us how certain variables can be measured if you

18 use the census as your information or the list as the control group and

19 the experimental group would be, for example, the list? You have the

20 census on the one hand and the list on the other. So if you

21 cross-reference the two, what do we end up with?

22 A. I think we're talking about two widely diverging principals here.

23 The census is the most comprehensive survey that you could possibly have

24 in a given area. Regardless of any shortcomings of the 1991 BH census,

25 we have to invoke it as a relevant source for our purposes. On the other

Page 35362

1 hand, a checklist is something that might be used for the purposes of

2 cross-referencing or drawing far-reaching conclusions about the

3 phenomenon at stake. In this case, you need to use the list, the voters'

4 list. And then you quote OTP sources saying the lists were voluntary, so

5 that's what they say. People were free to register as voters and perhaps

6 not.

7 There were several locations in Bosnia-Herzegovina where you were

8 free to go and vote or perhaps you have no desire to vote at all. That

9 made no difference. In our opinion it was the 1996 list that actually

10 has more relevance, because that was right after the end of the war. But

11 we never quite got that far. So the matching methods, if you look at the

12 very complex aggregate picture, constitute an attempt to qualify a

13 certain phenomenon. You have the 1991 census and you're trying to see

14 how they faired according to the 1997/1998 lists or electoral roles.

15 This is simple enough but you also run the risk of neglecting a lot of

16 other complex facts, population movements, migrations.

17 But what drove them? Was this a situation where they had no

18 choice? Was this something that they did of their own free will for

19 families to be reunited or what have you? Why did someone decide to

20 leave, for example, an urban area and move to a rural area or vice versa?

21 Was it for professional reasons? But this is something that expert

22 reports never reflect. This is a thorough deep going scientific

23 analysis, and that is something that is obviously lacking in any of the

24 OTP reports.

25 When we talk with statistics - it ask not my intention to offend

Page 35363

1 anyone - statistics can be used to prove just about anything. You can

2 toy around with the figures, but without an in-depth analysis you can't

3 arrive at real reliable results. So that's the one thing I wanted to say

4 about the method used in figure matching.

5 We decided to change tack and apply different methods. So if you

6 have the age structure of the population and you look at that, why would

7 I come up with a totally fictitious sample if I actually have real

8 information, good information from 1998 released by the federal

9 statistics bureau of Bosnia-Herzegovina called the Annual Journal for

10 Statistics giving you accurate figures on the 1998 population structure

11 for the first time after the war?

12 So the age structure according to categories is very clear-cut.

13 You take that as one variable. You take the natural trends as another.

14 And if you look at vital statistics it's always available for you to use.

15 You can also use fertility, the fertility of the female population as a

16 useful indicator. So, in other words, use a whole different methodology.

17 You apply scientific methods and you obtain a final result which can be

18 defined as a scientific conclusion, and this is very different from the

19 results obtained by the OTP report.

20 So that was the objective of my work. I wanted to turn things

21 around and show that if you use different methods, even simpler methods

22 in this case, you can arrive at totally different results and what

23 actually happened throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina.

24 Q. Thank you. Now let us try and see in which ways demographic

25 changes came about, especially when it comes to demographic losses. And

Page 35364

1 you may be able to show us what affected these, especially in the work of

2 the OTP experts, which factors were taken into consideration in assessing

3 the causes of demographic loss? Do we have a knowledge about population

4 in third countries or in neighbouring municipalities? Can these be

5 considered losses? And what have you -- what do you have to say about

6 that.

7 A. Of course. In the past 20 years, my scientific interest was also

8 in demographic loss in Bosnia and Herzegovina without anticipating such

9 an event as the war. We, as demographic experts, are also obliged to

10 deal with this issue.

11 The question you asked me is extremely complex and nobody can

12 tell you how high the demographic losses are, including direct

13 demographic losses due to the war but not limited to that. The Judges

14 certainly know that two relevant sources were used for that. The

15 Mirsad -- Mirsad Tokaca's CID and the reports of Ewa Tabeau of the OTP.

16 The losses are estimated at 97.000 in Tokaca's version, 204.000 in

17 Tabeau's version. But these are only the direct losses caused by the

18 war. These are not the overall demographic losses. When you calculate

19 those, then you must look at them in war time conditions and in peacetime

20 conditions. What would have happened in a country? This was my approach

21 and the direct losses caused by the war do not differ much. I made a

22 calculation and, of course, these figures are approximations. Nobody has

23 direct insight into the reality and nobody will even say they have

24 because it would sound frivolous. And according to my estimates the

25 directly losses amount to about 110.000. These losses are the most

Page 35365

1 painful but they are not the only ones. They are pure demographic losses

2 both due to the war and also those that would have happened if there

3 had [as interpreted] been a war. Those are losses due to lower birth

4 rates because a certain number of children was not born because there was

5 a war.

6 But the greatest losses are migrational demographic losses. They

7 were very high before the war as well, and I explained that. During the

8 war, migrations were generated about 2 million people moved within BH or

9 went -- or crossed the border, left it, and then you can follow this

10 process further. After the war there is a more intensive return to

11 Bosnia and Herzegovina that amounts to about 500.000 people, but a great

12 number stay in other countries and even apply for citizenship. Based on

13 my calculations, my estimate that from -- from after the war of 1996 up

14 to now, 120.000 people left Bosnia-Herzegovina. And if you take all this

15 into consideration, you come up with a total of 645.000 people which is

16 the total of migrational loss, which is huge for such a small country.

17 But the OTP expert did not take that into consideration, and it is very

18 difficult to look at something in a isolated fashion.

19 And then we come up with what I have said already, in the past 20

20 years Bosnia-Herzegovina lost 900.000 people. If BH would have had

21 4.7 million people if the census had been made earlier, now, the country

22 has 4.377 million people.

23 THE INTERPRETER: Could the expert please slow down and repeat

24 his last sentence.

25 JUDGE KWON: Doctor, interpreters couldn't catch you after you

Page 35366

1 said the country has 4.377 million people.

2 THE WITNESS: Okay.

3 [Interpretation] I repeat: Bosnia-Herzegovina, in 1991,

4 according to the census, had 4.377 million people. These are rounded

5 numbers.

6 If there had been no war, under different demographic conditions,

7 the estimate is that in 2011, it would have 4.7 million people, which was

8 interpreted.

9 And now what was not interpreted: This shows that such a small

10 country lost a total of 900.000 people, in inverted commas. Directly and

11 indirectly. And the conclusion is that today's estimates of the official

12 statistical organisations, that is the BH statistical agency, is that

13 Bosnia-Herzegovina now has 3.83 million people, which is about 900.000

14 less than there would have been under different conditions of demographic

15 development. I'm referring to the time-period ending in 2011.

16 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Page 50, line 8, of the transcript,

17 Dr. Pasalic did not say "without anticipating the war" but "without

18 anticipating this trial." He worked without anticipating these trials

19 here.

20 And then line 15, Dr. Tabeau did not say 402.000 but 104.000 --

21 expert and -- and 732.

22 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

23 Q. Out of these 900.000, how high would the figure be without the

24 war assuming that the negative trend of 17.000 would have accumulated in

25 20 years? How many would there have been with the war or without the

Page 35367

1 war?

2 A. It would have been interesting to follow the demographic

3 development. I tried to show that BH entered demographic transition

4 before the war, which means its population was changing. The population

5 is aging. There are fewer children born and people live longer, which

6 happens in developed countries.

7 In 1991, the average age of the BH population was 33 years.

8 Today, the average age, according to our estimates, is about 40 years.

9 And this trend would have continued even without the war.

10 Let us compare other countries, surrounding conditions: Croatia,

11 Serbia, Slovenia, they are the same demographic trends. Their -- the

12 average age of the populations of these countries is over 40 years. And

13 let me tell you, for the first time in history, in 2007,

14 Bosnia-Herzegovina has a process of depopulation. Fewer people are born

15 than are dying. That had never happened before in the demographic

16 development of Bosnia-Herzegovina. These changes would have been

17 inevitable even without the war. The war only generated or accelerated

18 some processes. First of all, the distribution of population. But these

19 traits would not have changed even without the war. But this is a

20 world-wide process. If we look at the global population, we'll see what

21 the dynamics are in -- overall.

22 Q. Your confirmation that there would have been 340.000 even without

23 the war did not enter the transcript.

24 So please repeat. If this negative demographic trend of 17.000

25 per year, how much would the -- how high would the aggregate number be

Page 35368

1 after 20 years with the war or without the war?

2 A. Well, that's very -- that's a simple calculation. That means 20

3 years times 17.000, which amounts to some 250.000 migrational losses.

4 But there's another component, pure demographic losses; namely, a lower

5 birth rate which sank both in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in other

6 countries. And if we take that into consideration, we would come up to a

7 total of 340.000 overall demographic loss.

8 Let me conclude. Even in -- at most peaceful times,

9 Bosnia-Herzegovina's demographic development would not have been what it

10 was like from the Second World War until the 1990s. And there are the

11 same trends that can be observed in surrounding countries.

12 Q. Thank you. Since this is a matter of criminal law, please show

13 us to what extent can we make reliable conclusions about the illegal

14 nature of the -- the migrations of population within Bosnia-Herzegovina.

15 MR. FILE: Your Honour, before the witness answers, I would

16 object. I would object to that question.

17 JUDGE KWON: Yes.

18 MR. FILE: I don't believe this witness is here to speculate

19 about the illegal nature of migration and I also think the question is

20 vague as well in terms of what it's asking for.

21 JUDGE KWON: Mr. Robinson, you would like to help us?

22 MR. ROBINSON: Actually, I think if Dr. Karadzic specifies what

23 he means by "illegal," I think that would clear it up.

24 JUDGE KWON: I tend to agree with Mr. File.

25 Could you clarify what you meant by "illegal"?

Page 35369

1 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Expelling too; that is, driving

2 people out. Ethnic cleansing. The allegations of the OTP imply that the

3 losses are the result of illegal expulsions of population. And I'm

4 asking Dr. Pasalic what conclusion can be drawn from this information and

5 from both the OTP report and his own report about the legal quality of

6 these processes during the war, taking into consideration that there were

7 such trends even before the war.

8 [Trial Chamber confers]

9 JUDGE KWON: Yes, please proceed.

10 If you could answer the question.

11 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I will try to be brief.

12 It is very bold and it's a simplification to draw such

13 conclusions as can be found in the OTP report. There are allegations

14 that these are unnatural trends and so on. I tried to show that the

15 problem is much more complex and that it is really very bold to make such

16 conclusions. I would not dare draw such conclusions which, to my mind,

17 are biased and do not reflect --

18 JUDGE KWON: Before you proceed, can you take a look at OTP

19 report where such conclusions were drawn?

20 Mr. File, do you agree that --

21 MR. FILE: Absolutely, Your Honour.

22 JUDGE KWON: No, no. I'm -- I was asking whether you agree that

23 OTP expert drew such conclusions.

24 MR. FILE: Oh, no. Not at all. I believe that Dr. Tabeau's

25 report makes no commentary on the motivations but it's a statistical

Page 35370

1 report, so I would also be interested to know where in the report he is

2 referring to.

3 JUDGE KWON: And I take it, Mr. Karadzic, separate from this

4 issue, you are coming to some concrete numbers. You -- you -- you will

5 show us some concrete examples. Hearing in the abstract, it's very

6 difficult to follow in concrete terms.

7 Yes, Doctor, do you have it with you?

8 Or, Mr. Karadzic, you can show us that part.

9 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Your Excellency, Dr. Tabeau was not

10 invited to a scientific conference but to prove that I was responsible

11 for demographic changes. She was not even --

12 JUDGE KWON: Just a second. Dr. Pasalic said OTP expert drew

13 conclusions which is very bold and he would not dare draw such

14 conclusions which are biased and do not reflect something.

15 So I wanted to see the conclusions of Dr. Tabeau, which she drew

16 in her report.

17 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] After the break, I will be able to

18 reply to this, Your Excellency. But the very nature of Dr. Tabeau's

19 evidence was to show that I'm responsible for demographic changes in

20 order to corroborate the allegation of the OTP that these were a result

21 of a forcible displacement and persecution of the non-Serb population.

22 So it's very clear what her task was.

23 And, after the break, if you still expect me to, I can provide

24 more information where this is implied, if not explicitly stated, that

25 the changes are as a result of ethnic cleansing.

Page 35371

1 JUDGE KWON: I was asking the doctor.

2 Yes, Mr. File.

3 MR. FILE: I just want to clarify a misconception.

4 Dr. Tabeau's evidence shows what the demographic changes were,

5 and there are thousands of pages of transcript and thousands of exhibits

6 that show what the motivation for those demographic changes were.

7 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] If I may ask then, if that is so,

8 why then did we exclude the movements and migrations of Serbs from the

9 report? Because the nature of relative numbers requires that both

10 variables be used.

11 JUDGE KWON: I do not follow your submissions.

12 Your point is that, why you are prohibited from dealing with

13 demographic changes on the part of Serb population. Is it your point?

14 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] If what the Prosecutor has said is

15 correct, that Dr. Tabeau only showed without prejudice the movements

16 where people moved from, this cannot be seen either in absolute on

17 relative numbers unless we also take into account the migrations of the

18 Serb population, and even more so when we talk about relative numbers and

19 percentages because they are interdependent. And so I ask myself, if

20 that is so, how and why is Dr. Tabeau's report going to be used as proof

21 of my guilt, and why was she called to testify here if we are not, in

22 fact, prosecuting here for guilt for -- for war crimes? And ...

23 JUDGE KWON: So I will not delve in debate further.

24 Yes, Doctor, did you take a look at Dr. Tabeau's report and found

25 where she drew conclusions to that effect you referred to?

Page 35372

1 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Well, first, I would like to tell

2 you that I've looked and studied all the reports of Dr. Tabeau, beginning

3 with the Milosevic case and all the others. And what she has actually

4 used in her study as the -- she used the term "war" in -- "... by

5 figures." I do not have her conclusion in the transcript right here and

6 now, but based on what Dr. Karadzic said, the sentence that he used, and

7 I don't see it before me, I explicitly said that such a conclusion could

8 not stand in the context of all the very complex changes that I spoke

9 about here today.

10 JUDGE KWON: Very well. I'll leave it at that.

11 Mr. Karadzic, please continue.

12 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] I would just like to enter in: On

13 page 60, in line 14, I said that these relative numbers are

14 "interdependent" and not "independent." The relative growth of one

15 population is linked to either its inflow or the outflow of another group

16 or population or a combination of the two factors.

17 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

18 Q. Now I would like to ask you about this, Dr. Pasalic. And I'm

19 referring to paragraph 24 of your report. Could you tell us what you

20 meant by combat battle deaths? And there you actually refer to two

21 authors. Could you tell us what types of deaths in a war, especially in

22 a civil war, can be identified.

23 A. Yes. I wanted to come up with a theoretical definition of this

24 type of death because in various reports, including the OTP expert

25 reports, the approach taken was rather free and loose and there was no

Page 35373

1 use of standardized documents when this issue was investigated, the issue

2 of deaths. Although there are documents from hospital records and so on

3 that could be used.

4 Now I used some theoretical categories that are accepted

5 throughout the world. There are four categories. The battle deaths,

6 then deaths due to increase in one-sided violence, unorganized criminal

7 violence, and non-violent mortality.

8 Mortality in war time is always greater than mortality in

9 peacetime. Why did I stress this? Well, because I did not find this

10 clearly defined and investigated in the expert reports in the -- in the

11 OTP expert reports where they deal with deaths and the number of people

12 who died during the war. Then it was their duty to make this

13 distinction, but I do understand that they couldn't not do it because

14 they simply could not -- they did not have access to raw primary data.

15 These are the so-called standardised documents that are the only valid

16 documents that show or confirm the death of a certain person.

17 Q. Can you tell us, based on your experience, what is the share of

18 each of these categories of deaths in civil wars? Do you have any

19 information to that effect, either from your own investigations or

20 studies or reference materials?

21 A. Well, I've already said that in some of the reports, not only of

22 the OTP experts but others, there were numerous reports on

23 Bosnia-Herzegovina, this issue was studied or approached rather loosely.

24 There was no differentiation made between combat, combatant, or

25 non-combatant, or civilians, and then there were some biased conclusions

Page 35374

1 that the death was the result of one or another factor, and I did not

2 consider these valid, and I simply insist - although I do not have the

3 primary sources either - but I insist that if we want to be precise, we

4 should make this categorisation because that is how it is done according

5 to international standards.

6 Now, according to my opinion, there were not only battle deaths

7 involved in the war. There was also an increase in mortality as a result

8 of illness and mortality of children and so on. So this -- or for any

9 other reason. So this is what is lacking in all of these expert reports,

10 OTP expert reports on Bosnia-Herzegovina, which then, in fact, undermines

11 the validity of their reports. I do not, unfortunately, have specific

12 information to tell you the data shows this and this and this, but I

13 can't do that because that would not be appropriate for an expert.

14 Q. In addition to the fact that a transversal investigation or

15 research would be useful, could you tell us how a longitudinal research

16 such as you conducted during the war, how that kind of research -- what

17 would its assessment be in terms of accuracy as compared to what your

18 colleagues from the OTP did? Did this research of --

19 THE INTERPRETER: The interpreter requests that the question be

20 repeated, please.

21 JUDGE KWON: Even your question was not interpreted,

22 Mr. Karadzic.

23 Could you repeat the last sentence.

24 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

25 Q. Your observation of the developments during the war and your

Page 35375

1 research of this phenomenon, did it have -- was it of a nature of a

2 longitudinal research and what is the value of longitudinal research as

3 opposed to transversal research, and especially in view of the secondary

4 sources of information?

5 A. Over the past 20 years, I applied longitudinal research as well,

6 and to make it clear, this means to research or follow certain phenomenon

7 in continuity, in succession. So this is what I said at the beginning,

8 that I did research before the war, during the war, and after the war.

9 There's also the transversal approach which is the approach where you

10 observe a phenomenon at the same time in various areas which can be seen

11 in the research -- in my research, especially in a time -- during the war

12 time in various areas of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

13 Such research always leads to more valid and scientifically

14 sounder outcomes. This is one of the shortcomings of the reports, the

15 expert reports by the OTP experts because they only use data from one

16 period, one certain period; for instance, if you only take 1992, that

17 cannot tell you anything about what was -- what happened in

18 Bosnia-Herzegovina over a period of time. So this is why I stress the

19 need to use the longitudinal approach as well as the transversal

20 approach.

21 Q. Thank you. I have to say that, for the transcript, that the

22 Doctor said the transversal means to -- the transversal approach means to

23 observe a certain phenomena at one point in time in several areas,

24 several different areas, not in one and the same area.

25 A. That is correct.

Page 35376

1 Q. What did you notice or conclude, rather, and register, applying

2 scientific methods about the migrations of the population after the war

3 and after the Dayton Accords?

4 A. When the war ended, or after the end of the war, you can clearly

5 see in my research that the demographic trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina

6 continued and they were negative. So there was a drop in the birth rate,

7 a natural depopulation, as it were, immigration, in other words, people

8 leaving, and a redistribution of the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina

9 which we can see from the statistics published by the bureau of

10 statistics on the internal displacements of populations. We see that

11 there is a larger trend of the population moving towards Republika Srpska

12 and a greater trend of people moving into the area of Brcko. That's --

13 I -- I see that there is a connection between the two, and, in any case,

14 after the war there is also a number of negative trends in Bosnia and

15 Herzegovina. The population -- the number of population is dropping, the

16 population is growing older, the younger population is smaller, but most

17 probably there will be a stagnation and a great migratory loss because

18 simply there aren't so many immigration countries that could accept

19 people migrating from Bosnia-Herzegovina.

20 This is my general conclusion because there are few immigration

21 countries that easily allow people to migrate into their own country.

22 Q. Thank you. Could you please explain in table 17 of your report

23 how it came about that Republika Srpska has a positive demographic growth

24 and who are the people returning or moving into Republika Srpska.

25 A. In my report, I presented one such datum, and I used of agency

Page 35377

1 for statistics of Bosnia-Herzegovina of 2011, and we also have

2 information for 2012 as I said here, and the trend is the same.

3 You see in Republika Srpska that the number of people who moved

4 in is greater than those who are moving out, and that the -- the -- that

5 trend is positive. Now with immigration, the -- there's a greater

6 number --

7 THE INTERPRETER: Could the witness please slow down.

8 JUDGE KWON: The interpreters were not able to catch up with your

9 speed.

10 Could you repeat.

11 And, in the meantime, shall we upload that. It's on English

12 page 68. I do not know the e-court number.

13 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Shall I repeat?

14 JUDGE KWON: Yes, please.

15 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Thank you.

16 Now, the table -- table number 17 which was produced on the basis

17 of official information from the agency for -- statistics agency, Bureau

18 of Statistics for Bosnia-Herzegovina which provides this kind of

19 information regularly on an annual basis. We can see that

20 Republika Srpska has, in the course of the year, a greater number of

21 people moving in than out, which means that its migration ratio is

22 positive, whereas opposed to the BH federation and the Brcko district

23 where the ratio is negative.

24 Now, this is only based on information from 2011 but the trend

25 was present in earlier statistical data from the time when internal

Page 35378

1 migrations were being monitored. And this is from 2007 up until 2012. I

2 do not have that information but they do exist.

3 So this also shows that there is a continuing redistribution of

4 populations within the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina or, as we said

5 in a statistical sense, there is an ethnic territorial homogenisation.

6 Q. Thank you. Now, do you have any --

7 JUDGE KWON: Just one quick question.

8 How could this represent a trend if it is limited to the year of

9 2011 and to the place of Brcko district, Doctor?

10 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Certainly. I said that I only gave

11 an overview of 2012. And you're right, taken alone it wouldn't be

12 correct. But I also added that this has been monitored since 2007, and

13 that throughout that period, from 2007 to 2012, the trend is the same.

14 It is positive, the migration trend is -- or ratio trend is positive for

15 the RS and negative for the federation and Brcko.

16 I'm sorry I don't have the data before me here, but this is

17 something that I have observed and, I repeat, it repeats and is

18 continuing.

19 JUDGE KWON: Thank you.

20 Please continue.

21 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

22 Q. Dr. Pasalic, can you tell us what is the share or what is the

23 affect of war time events or interethnic tensions or the Serb authorities

24 on this? To what extents are the Serbian authorities responsible for

25 this; or, rather, what is it that the Croats and Muslims are fleeing

Page 35379

1 from?

2 A. Well, first of all, I'll say this: Everyone whoever wished

3 returned to Republika Srpska and recovered their property because that is

4 a personal choice. So I will mention several areas where large numbers

5 of Muslims returned; for instance, in Zvornik, 25.000 Muslims returned to

6 Moslem after the war, or Kozarac near Prijedor and that entire

7 municipality.

8 Other hand, and this is very striking, is the fact that Serbs are

9 not going back to the federation, not even those who traditionally would

10 want to return to their own land, to their hearths, as it were, because

11 that has not been provided for. The buildings have not been

12 reconstructed and there is also no way of providing for the livelihood.

13 There -- economically speaking there is no livelihood.

14 Now, in the former -- in the former territory of the federation

15 there were 17 per cent of Serbs in the past, whereas --

16 THE INTERPRETER: Interpreters request: Could the witness repeat

17 the percentages.

18 JUDGE KWON: Could you -- could you start again from the part

19 where you referred to percentages.

20 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Yes. I said, in answer to the

21 questions why Serbs and Croats are leaving the federation still, even 15

22 years after the war, I said that according to some estimates, or

23 according to the estimates of the Bureau of Statistics of

24 Bosnia-Herzegovina, there are only 3 per cent of Serbs in

25 Bosnia-Herzegovina federation today. There are 75.5 per cent of

Page 35380

1 Bosniaks, 25 percent of Croats, and the rest are the others.

2 Now in 1991, there were 17 per cent of Serbs within the same

3 borders of the federation that are today. It is estimated that there

4 about 400.000 Croats in the federation today, whereas in 1991 there were

5 750.000.

6 So I will repeat what I said before, that Serbs and Croats are

7 gravitating towards Serbia or Croatia respectively. On the other hand, I

8 will repeat, the returns to Republika Srpska have practically been

9 finalised, and, for instance, in the Zvornik municipality, 25.000

10 Bosniaks returned to their land and their homes. This is information

11 from -- based on Bosniak institutions -- information, information

12 produced by Bosniak institution -- information, information produced by

13 Bosniak institutions because they keep records on -- on this, and they're

14 especially careful about records where reconstruction and recovery of

15 private property is concerned.

16 So this is the difference in the migrations that we showed in --

17 an explanation for it, that we showed in table 17 or, rather, why is that

18 the -- that the growth is positive in Republika Srpska and negative in

19 the federation.

20 Q. Thank you. Now, could you tell us, what is your basis for the

21 conclusion that you should focus on 20 municipalities in the federation

22 or 65 municipalities in Republika Srpska? Could you tell us how

23 representative is this sample? What is its nature?

24 The interpretation is a disaster. I will try to be simpler for

25 the interpretation. Of the total number of municipalities in

Page 35381

1 Bosnia-Herzegovina which was around 148, as opposed to a total of 62 new

2 municipalities in Republika Srpska, to what extent was the sample of the

3 20 municipalities that were scheduled in my last indictment, to what

4 extent is that representative for drawing conclusions on phenomena in a

5 systematic way?

6 A. If I want -- if I were to be explicit, I can say that it is

7 absolutely not representative. Not only when taking these 20

8 municipalities, but also when other samples are taken into account

9 because they used the so-called appropriate or suitable sample, so that

10 when you base a sample according to some kind of a position that you want

11 to take, you will then get an erroneous statistic or statistical data and

12 historical picture, which means that that information is practically not

13 useable, especially so when it has to do with such complex cases as is

14 this one.

15 What would have happened had we taken only the 62 municipalities

16 of Republika Srpska, or the same number of municipalities in the

17 Federation? That would give us skewed data so it would not be

18 representative in any way. Without seeing or taking an overview of the

19 entire area, you will not get a true historic picture and the correct

20 statistics.

21 Q. Thank you.

22 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Your Excellency, I see what time it

23 is and I am expecting your intervention. And if I can just say that

24 Mr. Ram, thanks to Mr. Ram's kindness, we've just learned that today we

25 have reached the 365th day of this trial, which means that we have been

Page 35382

1 sitting in this courtroom for a full year.

2 JUDGE KWON: Yes, he also told me that next witness will be 300th

3 witness in total, including the Prosecution's witnesses.

4 Well, given the time, we will take the break for 45 minutes and

5 resume at 18 past 1.00.

6 --- Luncheon recess taken at 12.34 p.m.

7 --- On resuming at 1.19 p.m.

8 JUDGE KWON: If we include Mr. Momcilo Mandic, who was a Chamber

9 witness, Dr. Pasalic is the third -- 300th witness.

10 Yes, Mr. Karadzic, please continue.

11 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Thank you.

12 MR. KARADZIC: [Interpretation]

13 Q. Dr. Pasalic, you told us something about the representativeness

14 of the sample to do with the 200-something or perhaps 62 municipalities

15 in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

16 How do you see the category of others in the findings of the

17 OTP's expert witness? What can you tell us about that? How did the

18 witness treat that group, Serbs, Muslims, on the one hand, and others?

19 A. I would say that a degree of confusion arose in the treatment of

20 this particular group, others. Why? We have the 1991 census in

21 Bosnia-Herzegovina. According to that census, there were some subjective

22 reports indicating there about 100 ethnic groups and nationalities there.

23 Serb, Croats, Muslims, the three constituent peoples, and as many as 97

24 other categories, ethnic affiliations, some more numerous and some very

25 few. According to these reports, they're all classed as "others."

Page 35383

1 And what I find to be particularly indicative, a category of

2 those people who at that time declared themselves to be Yugoslavs who

3 accounted for the greatest share in that category by far. I think that

4 is the particularly liberal interpretation if you decide to class the

5 Yugoslavs as belonging to the category others. In our own reports we

6 analyse that in far greater detail, demonstrating that the category of

7 Yugoslavs traditionally was linked to the Serb population and to a far

8 lower degree the Croats and Bosniaks which is simple enough to

9 demonstrate. You take a town such as Siroki Brijeg in western

10 Herzegovina. We have 1 or 2 per cent Yugoslavs. And then you go to a

11 place like Banja Luka, predominantly a Serbian population, and the share

12 of Yugoslavs suddenly rises to between 15 and 20 per cent. So it was

13 particularly significant issue, how that category, the Yugoslavs, would

14 be classed and viewed in the reports. I think it is definitely an

15 oversimplification to class them as others.

16 When I covered Sarajevo and other regions, I decided to take a

17 different approach. I used relevant estimates in accordance with such

18 indicators as were available. So the issue remains open. What about

19 these others, because that is a category that is continually referenced

20 in OTP reports which then changes to a significant degree, has a

21 significant bearing on the indicators regarding everybody else which then

22 distorts the historical image and the actual truth.

23 Q. Thank you very much. May I then summarise by asking this: Is

24 there perhaps another aspect which leads to a distortion of these

25 historical image. So it's too narrow a sample. The first thing. The

Page 35384

1 second thing, the discrepancy in terms of the number of minor persons.

2 And then the third thing is this category which is defined as others.

3 How does that affect the relative indicators of loss or

4 sufferings of the Serbs, Croats, and Muslims, in relation to these three

5 categories? So what -- in what way does that affect the result?

6 A. According to my calculations, that affects the realistic

7 representation, depiction of the actual situation. You have relative

8 indicators which is something that is very much taken up by the OTP

9 experts because for the most part they did not have absolute figures

10 available to them. I wanted to link that up to a particular data point

11 which I quote in my report. If I may, what is this liberal

12 interpretation based on information sources or indeed based on the

13 categories of ethnic affiliations that we have been discussing?

14 There is one thing that I can demonstrate here and I think that

15 would actually be desirable here in court, for a document to be scanned

16 that I have brought along. We have Ewa Tabeau's statement, you have my

17 statement, you have Smajo Cekic's statement who is the director of the

18 war crimes institute in Sarajevo, and you have Dr. Muhamed Sestanovic who

19 was in charge of a project -- the census project in Sarajevo between 1992

20 and 1994. You will see that there is no such list, no such census, no

21 such information was ever published, yet Ewa Tabeau in her report invokes

22 just that information which is quite arbitrary because it's been 22 years

23 since the war and we still don't have a proper census.

24 Who could have drawn up such a list during -- in the very thick

25 of the war between 1992 and 1994? That would not have been possible.

Page 35385

1 You have all these statements collated of all these people who are

2 actually involved. I have the photographs too accompanying those

3 documents. So we could make a scan of that just to show how work

4 proceeded in a most arbitrary manner in no way proving the

5 representativeness of a process or a particular event. Or if we just

6 take this single piece of information, the funerary company belonging to

7 one ethnic group and then trying to represent the numbers of persons from

8 that ethnic group who were killed or died in Sarajevo throughout that

9 period. I deem that to be entirely unacceptable and you can't base a

10 report on that because the information becomes irrelevant. If you are

11 adamant about using a source which simply does not exist, then 20 years

12 later it still doesn't exist. The information of that alleged census was

13 never published. They try to justify that by saying they had problems

14 with their technical equipment, technology, the software, and so on and

15 so forth, but how could the data ever have been produce to begin with?

16 So from a purely scientific viewpoint this is entirely intolerable.

17 Q. Thank you very much. What about during the war? How many Croats

18 or Serbs could possibly have been buried by this funerary company, the

19 Bakija Company?

20 A. Objectively speaking, unless that was necessary, such burials

21 were not performed for Serbs or for Croats. Each group had its own

22 company that was in charge of burials and they looked after that kind of

23 thing. That's why I'm greatly surprised to see serious researchers

24 accepting this as their sole source of information or for the purposes of

25 cross-referencing in order to arrive at the overall number of victims

Page 35386

1 during a war in such a large city. They can't possibly use the data

2 generated by a single company as a reference. This is sheer nonsense.

3 That's how I would define this from a scientific and research viewpoint.

4 We simply wouldn't use anything like that.

5 Q. Thank you very much. You also put forward an opinion saying that

6 the -- a reduction in the number of variables or markers broadens your

7 choice. So if you take the first name and the last name, that sort of

8 broadens the scope, and if you take the father's name, that sort of

9 narrows the scope.

10 So what ramifications stems from that treatment of variables?

11 And what is the overview obtained, if, for example, you want to

12 get the -- you want to base your findings on a set of ten markers or

13 categories?

14 A. If you take that approach, the greater the number of variables

15 the better. In present day circumstances when we have all these data

16 points available to us, we use as many as 15 for purposes of our

17 research. That, however, is not strictly necessary. If you bear in mind

18 the conditions at the time, the more variables were available to us the

19 more reliable the information thus retrieved. If you just used the first

20 and last names that is not sufficiently reliable. It is better to use

21 other information in case it's available to you, the identification

22 numbers of the person involved, the parents, the gender, the -- the date

23 of birth and so on and so forth. If you take all these variables, the

24 result obtained will be more reliable regarding a whole population group

25 or a section of a particular population group and that's why we are

Page 35387

1 adamant that these variables must be used yet they weren't used by OTP

2 experts, and they were in a position to use them because as early as 1998

3 such information would have been available to them. And Ewa Tabeau

4 started her report back in 2000, two years after all this particularly

5 relevant information was made available.

6 Q. Thank you very much. In your report you also include your own

7 research regarding Srebrenica. Could you briefly tell us what your

8 conclusions were and what method you used to arrive at that conclusion in

9 relation to the OTP reports and your own research?

10 A. I'm talking about my personal approach and also about

11 researchers, generally speaking. Srebrenica is a particularly complex

12 issue which must be approached with caution. We have to err on the side

13 of caution and not be too liberal in the way we deal with our

14 information, so we tried to arrive at a demographic conclusion concerning

15 what occurred in that particular area.

16 My conclusions for the most part say the following: In order to

17 draw up reliable demographic analysis on missing persons in Srebrenica,

18 whether dead or missing, first and foremost you would have needed valid

19 statistical documents available to you produced on the basis of reliable

20 information, which is the most vulnerable point of any report on

21 Srebrenica that we have seen so far. There are all sorts of liberal

22 interpretations and treatment of data by various associations and as a

23 rule large scale discrepancies occur between all of these. In many

24 cases, the sources are not reliable and sometimes people simply don't

25 have a sufficient familiarity with acceptable scientific methods or

Page 35388

1 statistical methods which leads to considerable confusion when

2 conclusions are drawn on the relevance of such statistical indicators as

3 are actually used in these reports. You see what they're using in these

4 reports: ICRC lists, Medecins Sans Frontieres lists, census-related

5 information, the electoral role from 1998, a data base on displaced

6 persons from 2000, information regarding exhumations and bodies that were

7 actually identified.

8 What am I trying to say here? What am I trying to underline? If

9 you look at all these information sources with the exception of the 1991

10 census, none of these sources are susceptible to any known and legitimate

11 statistical standard which results in an incredible number of mistakes.

12 It is impermissible, the mean value being 30 per cent. And that would be

13 our conclusion regarding the demographic conclusions derived based on

14 this information. The possibility is very much open from our perspective

15 for anyone to seriously come to grips with the issue, because now there

16 is more information available and more valid reliable information

17 available that could be used for that purpose. May I just name an

18 example?

19 Q. Yes, please, by all means go ahead.

20 A. I quote a specific example there, not as a whole in my report but

21 it's in one of my attachments. If you use the cross-referencing method

22 as it was used by Ewa Tabeau in 1991, she denotes a presence in

23 Srebrenica, and then in 1998 she's talking about the electoral role. We

24 contact some institutions who deal with gathering such information and

25 then we receive a list containing the names of 3.500 persons on the role

Page 35389

1 back in 1998 yet are missing from the 1991 census in which they were

2 indeed not registered as inhabitants of Srebrenica. So this is an

3 impressive number which suggests something about the demographic trends

4 in the area. That is a glaring example.

5 Q. Thank you very much. I would like to know about the

6 representativeness of the stratum. One question. What about the age

7 category of those aged 90 or over 90 years of age? Would the death rates

8 in that particular category be taken as representative in relation to the

9 overall population? How would that work?

10 A. From a demographic standpoint, when we talk about mortality and

11 any figures that might be taken to be representative, we need to arrive

12 at a standardised mortality rate of the overall population which you then

13 use to process reliable information, and you also need to consider

14 differentiated mortality rates because it's not the same for those aged

15 over 90 who are nearing the end of their natural lives or indeed for

16 people who are between, say, 20 and 40 years of age. This is a delicate

17 issue.

18 When you talk about mortality in war time or indeed in peacetime,

19 one must distinguish between these categories, and you need to apply what

20 we call the standardisation method to ascertain realistic mortality rates

21 of the population in certain circumstances. So if you look at people

22 aged over 90 can in no way be taken as representative of anything at all.

23 Q. Thank you very much. Much along the same lines, what can you

24 tell us about the representativeness of certain age groups of the male

25 population in relation to their ability to fight or their involvement in

Page 35390

1 fighting? What are the results obtained if you look just at that

2 category, which is not representative but, rather, is limited in terms of

3 the year of birth?

4 A. Yes, if you look at just one group, one category, a limited

5 sector of the population, according to their age group, you derive a

6 picture which perhaps does not reflect the phenomenon in its entirety,

7 although it is a generally known fact that the male population -

8 generally known, I'm saying globally known. Some of the categories are

9 reduced because of the men that were killed in war so that obviously

10 affects the overall figures for the male population. Needless to say,

11 the global tendency is 106 men are born for every 100 women, so more men

12 are born than women on a global scale.

13 And then from age 14, age 15, the female population sort of takes

14 over, and there are quite a number of factors contributing to that

15 change. Among other things, war is something that needs to be taken into

16 account, but then also males are more susceptible to certain types of

17 illness, or perhaps performing hard physical labour which can also lead

18 to greater mortality rates among the men. So just to bring that as a

19 point, you can't simplify these matters when you look at these reports.

20 Mortality is a delicate issue even in war time circumstances.

21 Q. And what about men's hazardous lives, smoking, gambling,

22 drinking, an unhealthy lifestyle, how do you think that might affect the

23 mortality for men as opposed to the mortality figures in relation to

24 women? Do you think that has a bearing on that?

25 A. Yes, by all means. The average life expectancy on a global scale

Page 35391

1 is greater for women than it is for men. In Bosnia-Herzegovina which is

2 what we are looking at here, right now, life expectancy for women is

3 about 75, for men it is about 72. Even without the war. So that

4 addresses the issue you have raised, and it also tell us about a number

5 of other factors that affect the shorter life-span of the male

6 population. Back where we come from, the life expectancy is still more

7 shorter than you might expect it to be in developed countries, highly

8 developed countries, Japan, western Europe, and so on and so forth. The

9 conditions of living is, obviously, is one thing that really affects this

10 trend. And the male population where we come from is easily tempted by

11 all these risks, the risks of an unhealthy lifestyle, smoking, drinking,

12 gambling, and so on and so forth. So this is something that you must

13 take into account when you talk about male mortality in war.

14 Q. Thank you. On page 107 of your report you quote one sentence

15 from the OTP report's expert, the author. I quote:

16 "There's no proof that a significant number of persons who

17 disappeared when Srebrenica fell have survived."

18 What can you tell us about the validity of this conclusion? From

19 the forensic point of view.

20 A. I don't think your -- the page numbering is the same?

21 Q. It's about Srebrenica?

22 A. Yes, I know. But.

23 MR FILE: [Overlapping speakers] ...

24 JUDGE KWON: Yes.

25 MR. FILE: It's page 108 in the English. It's the first

Page 35392

1 paragraph, first complete paragraph of page 108.

2 JUDGE KWON: Footnote 49.

3 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] I apologise, I enlarged the font

4 size so the page numbers have changed.

5 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I found the footnote. There's no

6 evidence that any significant number of the Srebrenica-related missing

7 persons have survived.

8 This is the quotation and the footnote reads:

9 "Report on the number of missing and dead from Srebrenica of 12th

10 February 2000."

11 And then the page references.

12 What I wanted to show with this quotation is that this is a very

13 general statement. Nobody was trying to prove whether anybody survived

14 or didn't survive.

15 Q. Thank you, Dr. Pasalic. I have no further questions at this

16 point. I also want to leave some time to the OTP.

17 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Your Excellencies, if you are still

18 interested in what I said about the implications of the findings of

19 Dr. Tabeau, I can quote.

20 JUDGE KWON: First, we shall admit Doctor's CV.

21 Shall we give the number.

22 THE REGISTRAR: Exhibit D3124.

23 JUDGE KWON: Any objection to admitting Dr. Pasalic's report,

24 Mr. File?

25 MR. FILE: Not an objection, Your Honour, but just one

Page 35393

1 observation which was that I noticed on page 111 in the English at

2 footnote 60 it refers to a list of persons featuring on the 1997/1998

3 voters' register list but not in the 1991 population census is given in a

4 separate annex to this report. And I haven't seen a separate annex to

5 the report. I think the witness also referred to this as attachments

6 today around transcript page 77, although I don't believe it was recorded

7 in the transcript. But I just wanted to make that observation.

8 JUDGE KWON: Probably can you take -- take it up in your

9 cross-examination.

10 Yes, we'll admit the expert report.

11 THE REGISTRAR: As Exhibit D3125, Your Honour.

12 JUDGE KWON: Very well.

13 Yes, Mr. File. I take it your cross-examination will continue

14 tomorrow.

15 MR. FILE: Yes, Mr. President.

16 JUDGE KWON: If you could leave five minutes at the end of today.

17 MR. FILE: Okay.

18 Cross-examination by Mr. File:

19 Q. Good afternoon, Professor.

20 A. Good afternoon.

21 Q. One of your primary critiques of Dr. Tabeau's municipality

22 report, which is P4994, is that it is only based on statistics and it

23 does not investigate the individual causes of the migration that took

24 place between 1991 and 1997. I noticed at paragraph 66 of your report,

25 you complain about the use of dry figures, and at paragraph 67, you say:

Page 35394

1 "Our main objection is that the demographic trends and other

2 developments in BH in 1992 to 1995 were much more complex and go beyond

3 the mere drawing of evidence and conclusions on basis of numbers only."

4 Now if you were doing a scientific study to identify the reasons

5 that individuals moved at a particular moment in time, you'd conduct a

6 survey with individual interviews; is that right?

7 A. This tool, such as a survey or questionnaire, can be used to

8 research this phenomenon, but you can also use other tools. It depends.

9 Q. Okay. Well, today at page 35 and 36 of the transcript, you

10 described how you collected data during the war in the area that you had

11 access to. Now that was data that you collected with individual

12 interviews; correct?

13 A. Correct yes.

14 Q. And that was interviews of exclusively the Serb population;

15 correct?

16 A. Basically, yes. Because, unfortunately, there was a war and our

17 movements were limited. It was impossible to collect data in an area to

18 which you have no access. Neither was it possible for others to

19 remove -- to do research in areas accessible to me, nor could I go and

20 research in areas that I couldn't physically go to. But I conducted

21 empirical research by means of surveys --

22 Q. Right. Okay, Professor, I understand. My question was just

23 whether you had access exclusively to the Serb population, and I think

24 you answered that question at the beginning.

25 You didn't put any details of this in your report, did you?

Page 35395

1 A. I think that I made a comment in my report and said although this

2 report reflects mostly my research among the Serbian population, it can

3 give a significant contribution to the creation of an overall picture of

4 all demographic processes in Bosnia-Herzegovina, taking into account

5 other reports or the work of other researchers if they are scientifically

6 acceptable. Two years ago the Trial Chamber accepted such a report

7 fully, although it only dealt with the Serbian population.

8 Q. In your report there are no details of what methodology you used

9 or any copies of surveys or forms or questionnaires that you gave to

10 conduct this research. There's no indication of where to go to review

11 these materials. There's no indication of what territorial boundaries

12 applied to your research. None of that is in your report, correct?

13 A. I could give you a simplified answer, but let me take you back to

14 the period when this data was collected. It was war time and --

15 Q. To be honest, Professor, I would be interested in a simplified

16 answer.

17 A. A simplified answer is I collected the data on behalf of the

18 State Centre for the -- for the research into war crimes and all the data

19 are -- can then be found in the archives of that institution, such as

20 individual questionnaires and so on --

21 Q. Right. But --

22 A. -- whereas I presented the synthesized results in three books

23 that have been published.

24 Q. Okay. Again, that wasn't my question. My question was: You

25 didn't put any of that in your report, did you?

Page 35396

1 A. That would have required a report that is thousands of pages

2 long. If I were to include individual questionnaires and so on. That is

3 inappropriate. But you -- instead, in such a report, you include

4 references to the sources where these findings can be checked and

5 corroborated, but nobody has yet disproved the accuracy of the data in my

6 report. Nobody from scientific circles, and that is very significant.

7 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] I have a comment on the transcript.

8 The reply of Professor Pasalic from line 18 on is not accurately

9 reflected.

10 The synthesised results of the research have been published in

11 three scientific books. None of that was recorded.

12 JUDGE KWON: It is partially there.

13 Let continue.

14 Thank you, Mr. Karadzic.

15 MR. FILE:

16 Q. Now you mentioned during your direct examination that you wrote a

17 report in the Stanisic and Zupljanin case and that you testified as a

18 witness in that case. I want to ask you about some of your testimony.

19 On the 12th of May, 2011, at transcript 20636 in that case, you

20 said:

21 "I was in an area where I could study demographic processes

22 involving the Serb population. After the war, after a certain amount of

23 time, the conditions became right for such research as well. However,

24 Ms. Tabeau's research, as well as that of the IDC from Sarajevo, had

25 already been rather all encompassing, so I believe that anything I would

Page 35397

1 have done would have been duplication. I thought that all of this put

2 together would have provided a more realistic and more comprehensive

3 picture. That is where I see the significance of my own research,

4 although it did not include all the demographic processes because that

5 was impossible. Finally, I did not have the capacity to do that, to

6 study a span of ten years. This is a lot of work and to this day

7 practically no one succeeded in doing that."

8 Now, to clarify, to the extent that this case is concerned with

9 the ethnic cleansing of Muslims from the indictment municipalities, your

10 research does not add any data regarding reasons for population movement

11 of Muslims; correct?

12 A. Let me answer the question like this. Yes, the quotations are

13 the very ones. I was replying to the Trial Chamber that I mostly dealt

14 with the sufferings of the Serbian population and that after the war

15 there was no need to conduct research into the Muslim and Croatian

16 populations because it -- that had been covered in many other reports,

17 but the -- but data for the Serbian population was missing. That was the

18 significance of my report and that's what I wanted to explain back then.

19 I didn't want to discuss ethnic cleansing because that is a

20 rather complex term which I also tried to explain then before Court. And

21 when a number of researchers compare the results of their research, they

22 can arrive at relevant results. In the past five years, I was the only

23 one to research demographic -- the demographic situation in all of BiH.

24 Nobody has yet disproved my results. Everything was based on scientific

25 sources and nobody ever challenged my results, which, of course, is a

Page 35398

1 source of satisfaction to me as any other researcher.

2 Q. So, to be clear, your answer to my question is no, your research

3 does not add any data regarding reasons from population movement of

4 Muslims, correct?

5 A. That is not correct. I gave examples in that report. I took the

6 municipalities of Bijeljina, Zvornik, and Prijedor as examples. The

7 method of calculation of the numbers of the Muslim and Croatian

8 population were wrongly applied. And this is one of the most explicit

9 ways of challenging -- challenging allegations of what happened in

10 certain municipalities.

11 Q. Maybe we're not -- maybe we're not being understood. The

12 question is about your own research with interviews, not about looking at

13 numbers. The point is you never added any data through interviews of the

14 reasons for population movement of Muslims.

15 A. If I understood you correctly, I would say that the area was not

16 accessible to me. I could not conduct a survey among the members of

17 other ethnic groups. There was a war and freedom of movement was

18 limited. I had a very clear task which certainly considered the

19 circumstances.

20 Q. Okay. I'd like to ask you about this theory of ethnic

21 territorial homogenisation which you have mentioned frequently today and

22 it permeates the report that you wrote.

23 Now, this is a theory that you developed; correct?

24 A. No, not only I, but I am one of those who developed it. But

25 other demographers and sociologists that deal with the processes in

Page 35399

1 Bosnia-Herzegovina came up with this joint thesis, ethnic territorial

2 homogenisation as a historical process, which was present before the war

3 as well, generated during the war, and continued after it. It is very

4 easy to proof.

5 Q. You believe that ethnic groups naturally tend to want to live

6 apart from other ethnic groups?

7 A. During the period of homogenisation, it means that a certain

8 trait is homogenised. Ethnic affiliation is something that is present in

9 Bosnia-Hercegovina. It is not a product of the war exclusively. The war

10 could have catalyzed it. But what is -- what are these things that are

11 happening after the war? I showed you the internal migrations in

12 Bosnia-Herzegovina nowadays. This is a process of ethnic territorial

13 homogenisation which needn't be seen as anything bad in itself because

14 we're talking about a complex ethnodemographic area.

15 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] The transcript did not reflect

16 everything that was said. I think that the relevant service should

17 listen to the tapes again and check the transcript against the tapes and

18 not merely correct individual mistakes.

19 I would have to intervene about every single answer. I

20 understand that this is technical and perhaps the interpreters are not

21 familiar with demographic terminology, but something must be done. So

22 these tapes must be listened to -- listened to again and the transcript

23 corrected.

24 JUDGE KWON: Dr. Pasalic, could you speak a little bit more

25 slowly.

Page 35400

1 THE WITNESS: Okay.

2 JUDGE KWON: Yes, let's continue.

3 MR. FILE:

4 Q. Now, again, in the Stanisic and Zupljanin case, on the 10th of

5 May, 2011, at transcript page 20479 and 20480, you said:

6 "Serbs or Croats are always focused on the neighbouring

7 countries, that is to say, Serbia and Croatia, throughout history. As

8 for the Muslims, or now Bosniaks as they are called, they were focused

9 towards Turkey, so the area of Bosnia-Herzegovina is an immigration area

10 exclusively up until this day."

11 And today you said a comment similar to that at page 42 of the

12 transcript. So did you mean that for the various reasons that you've

13 enumerated such as economic factors and social factors that Muslims in

14 Bosnia-Herzegovina have always had a preference for moving to Turkey?

15 A. I merely wanted to back this up by historical facts, that the

16 Muslims, but to a much smaller extent, were leaving for Turkey, whereas

17 Serbs and Croats traditionally went to Serbia and Croatia respectively.

18 I showed that by mentioning specific figures, most Serbs after the

19 Second World War left for Serbia. Croats for Croatia. And the Muslims

20 were much less susceptible to leaving BiH, ten times less, but when they

21 did leave they mostly went to Turkey or other Muslim countries, which is

22 natural.

23 Q. This theory of yours has not been adopted in international

24 academic circles; right? It's -- I think the way you put it in the

25 Stanisic/Zupljanin case was it is not a known thing internationally; is

Page 35401

1 that correct?

2 A. I don't remember that. It doesn't sound like anything I may have

3 said. But if we were to develop this theory in the scientific circles of

4 Bosnia-Herzegovina, the question is to what extent we would agree about

5 all these movements, but let me not give too long an answer. I know how

6 the intellectuals in Bosnia-Herzegovina see these migrations. Other

7 people see them differently. But this is a fertile ground to develop

8 different theories for migrations in Bosnia-Herzegovina and out of

9 Bosnia-Herzegovina.

10 Q. Okay. I'm just going to show you the transcript page so can you

11 see where you said that in that case.

12 MR. FILE: Could we switch to Sanction for this, please.

13 Q. So this was a question to explain the theory. And you said that

14 all your explanations of ethnodemographic movements in the war.

15 "And I also researched the postwar period can corroborate the

16 basic thesis that I put forward and that is the ethnic territorial

17 homogenisation. This is not a known thing internationally."

18 Does that help you recall that testimony?

19 A. Everything can be of assistance, but I really don't remember

20 saying this. Maybe I forgot. Maybe it was misinterpreted. And

21 international is also a bit vague. It's too loose a term.

22 Q. Now, regardless of the validity of the theory, it does not

23 explain on its own why a particular group would move at a particular

24 time; right? You still need some form of information to put population

25 movement in context; correct?

Page 35402

1 A. I'm not sure I understood the question. But migrational

2 movements out of Bosnia-Herzegovina have been very intensive, and all

3 forecasts say that they will continue to be that way.

4 Q. Okay. Let me -- I'll clarify. In your testimony in the Stanisic

5 and Zupljanin case, on the 10th of May, 2011, at transcript 20515 to 516,

6 you said:

7 "This is the principle of territorial ethnic homogenisation of

8 ethnic groups which shows that there was a transfer of population.

9 Sometimes it was caused by ethnic cleansing. Sometimes it was caused by

10 deportations and prosecution." I think you meant persecution. "I've

11 already explained that to you. These processes continue to this day."

12 So my question is: Your theory of ethnic territorial

13 homogenisation does not exclude the phenomena of ethnic cleansing or

14 forcible transfer of populations?

15 A. Well, let me try to recall that report and why I used the

16 categories ethnic cleansing, transfers, and deportations. All of these

17 are internationally recognised forms of movements of populations, and I

18 wanted to show that everything that the OTP experts did was not a deep

19 analysis and practically allowed for all of this to be bundled together

20 as ethnic cleansing which is not correct. Ethnic cleansing is a quick

21 and forceful removal of a population from a certain area and that was not

22 the general phenomenon in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the war, and that

23 was the context in which I explained this.

24 Q. That wasn't the question. That wasn't the question. The

25 question was your theory the territorial ethnic homogenisation doesn't

Page 35403

1 exclude any of those types of population movements. Yes or no?

2 A. Well, if you want an explicit answer, ethnic territorial

3 homogenisation is a process that was happening during the war and also

4 after the war and it can be motivated by different factors and motives.

5 One of them, at the time, was the war and the general insecurity and

6 uncertainty that where the population felt safer in their ethnic area,

7 which -- where they were the dominant ethnic group. But why is that

8 still present today? What are the motives today? Those are the answers

9 that I would like to show because --

10 Q. Well, let's --

11 A. -- to point out how complex the problems in Bosnia-Herzegovina

12 were regardless of whether you're satisfied with my answer to your

13 question.

14 Q. How about this: When I read to you your testimony where you said

15 sometimes it was caused by ethnic cleansing, sometimes it was caused by

16 deportations and prosecution or persecution, that -- you confirmed that

17 was your testimony, right?

18 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] Could we please see that? Was it

19 actually said, "caused by" or "referred to as"? So did Dr. Pasalic say,

20 was it "caused by" or was it "referred to"? In our language, these two

21 words sound very similar but the meanings are very different.

22 MR. FILE: I'm reading the transcript to him. If he denies it,

23 we can look at it.

24 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Well, for me it's quite clear. We

25 can call something ethnic cleansing. Some processes we can refer to as

Page 35404

1 transfers of populations. Some we can term as deportations or we can use

2 other terms.

3 All I was trying to point out was that the OTP experts did not go

4 deep into these analyses, and, in a way, by presenting their figures,

5 they practically showed that this involved only ethnic cleansing and that

6 is not acceptable. Ethnic cleansing has a definition in -- within the

7 international framework and that is what I abided by.

8 MR. FILE: Could we look at P2639, please.

9 Q. What you see in front of you is a decision by the Crisis Staff of

10 the Serbian municipality of Sanski Most from 4 June 1992. And you see

11 under conclusions it says:

12 "Mirko Vrucinic, Nedeljko Rasula, and Colonel Nedjo Anicic shall

13 be in charge of resolving the issue of prisoners and their categorisation

14 and deportation to Manjaca.

15 "First category: Politicians.

16 "Second category: Nationalist extremists.

17 "Third category: People unwelcome in Sanski Most municipality.

18 "In view of this, have a talk with Colonel Stevilovic from the

19 1st Krajina Corps."

20 Now, does this look to you like the sort of government order that

21 might cause population movement independent of these other factors that

22 you are talking about?

23 A. You are putting to me a document that I didn't have while I was

24 preparing the report in Stanisic/Zupljanin, nor for this case, and I do

25 not feel that it's necessary for me to comment on it at this point. This

Page 35405

1 is absolutely the first time that I ever see a report of this kind, these

2 type of conclusions and so on. This has nothing to do with my report and

3 I have no idea where you got it from.

4 Q. Well, it's evidence in this case, and I'm wondering what your

5 view is on it.

6 A. Well, I can give you my arbitrary opinion.

7 This was mainly something that was dealt with and agreed at the

8 local level. These were not orders that came from the Supreme Command or

9 the government. And there were also arrangements between municipalities

10 for transfers of population. For instance, in Kozluk 10.000 Muslims

11 were -- they left that area in a peaceful way and saved their lives and

12 then they returned to those areas because it was war time, and for them

13 this was the most acceptable way in which they could be safe.

14 Q. In the Stanisic and Zupljanin case at transcript 20503, you said:

15 "When, due to the forced migration, a group of people from one

16 ethnic group comes to one specific area, then indirectly pressure is

17 exerted on another ethnic group who had been living there earlier, that

18 ethnic group feels more insecure because war implies many terrible

19 things. People have left their family members, some extremists or

20 paramilitary groups appear, and great insecurity is felt by the

21 civilians, and then people were willing to leave everything they have,

22 all their property, and go to territory which they would consider to be

23 more safe which was most often an area where their ethnic group was

24 predominant. This is what I called voluntary migration."

25 So my question to you is: The sort of migration that takes place

Page 35406

1 under this kind of pressure, to you, is voluntary; correct?

2 A. Well, I don't want to expound here on migrations, but I remember

3 very well that this statement that I -- that you see here, I corroborated

4 on my own example from the area where I used to live. I left that area,

5 although there was no rifle pointed at me, and went to an area where my

6 ethnic population was dominant and where I felt safe.

7 In this, I tried to show the principle of connected vessels and

8 the movements of the populations right before the war because this

9 started happening before the war broke out because the population wanted

10 to avoid the uncertainty and feel safe in the areas where they were.

11 That was a vital issue in those areas. These were rather spontaneous

12 migrations, you -- that would be the way to put it, rather than

13 expulsions and persecutions that would be accompanied by brutality and so

14 on.

15 But at the same time this does not mean that there weren't any

16 extremists or paramilitary formations that actually acted in quite a

17 different way.

18 Q. Okay. I'd like to change the subject slightly and ask you about

19 this issue of declarative ethnicity. You mentioned at transcript page 71

20 today that you analysed this question in far greater detail. This was

21 relating to the inclusion of Yugoslavs in the category of others.

22 Now, in your report, at paragraph 38, you say that the biggest

23 problem with this is that there was no way for people to declare

24 ethnicity in 1997 when registering to vote. And you also say that over

25 the six years there was a change in declarative ethnicity. This is on

Page 35407

1 page 18 to 19 of the B/C/S version. Page 20 of the English.

2 And then in your report you describe what you say are changes but

3 here I don't -- I don't see any citation or any study or any evidence

4 that supports this claim. Is that correct, it's not in your report?

5 A. I'm not sure if I understood your question exactly. What is it

6 that you're asking me about and what you want me to answer? Are you

7 asking me about the Yugoslavs which was one of the categories in the

8 censuses up until 1991? No --

9 Q. I'm asking you for evidence to support the claim that over the

10 six years there was a change in declarative ethnicity. And I'm wondering

11 where there's any evidence for that in your report.

12 A. Well, the census was conducted the last time in 1991, an official

13 census. And there was the category of Yugoslav as an ethnicity. After

14 that there was not a single census and this is a hypothetical question.

15 Namely, who would declare themselves as what ethnicity. If that's what

16 you meant. Nor is there anyone who can give you any explicit data on how

17 people declared -- chose to declare themselves after that, because this

18 is a subjective choice of any individual person and that's the case

19 everywhere, including in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

20 But if you meant the category of Yugoslavs, it is evident that

21 this category contained a large percentage; in other words, this -- this

22 whole array of ethnic declarations where people declared themselves as

23 Yugoslavs, there were a whole -- there was a whole range of different

24 ethnicities, but they have disappeared. They are non-existent today.

25 Q. Okay. Let's switch to that topic, then. I asked whether there

Page 35408

1 was evidence or a change in declarative ethnicity. You didn't provide me

2 with any indication in your report where you have evidence for that. So

3 I'm going to ask you about your comment at paragraph 40, which is related

4 to what you just said. You said:

5 "It's widely known that when the category of Yugoslavs still

6 existed, it consisted mostly of Serbs who have always favoured the

7 preservation of Yugoslavia and even the creation of a new Yugoslav nation

8 which was much less present in Muslims and practically negligible in

9 Croatia."

10 Now, again, you don't cite anything to support this assertion in

11 your report either, do you?

12 A. Well, you see, I've tried today in my testimony to point out this

13 category of Yugoslavs where the case was that most Yugoslavs, most people

14 declared themselves as Yugoslavs in those towns where Serbs were in the

15 majority. And, as an example, I talked about the chamber of

16 municipalities and local communes of 1991, where a large -- where a

17 majority of Serb deputies won in those municipalities, although they did

18 not have a majority in the overall population.

19 Q. Okay. I'm --

20 THE INTERPRETER: The interpreter requests that the last portion

21 of the answer be repeated. This witness was too fast.

22 JUDGE KWON: Doctor, you're again speaking too fast.

23 I take it you read English.

24 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] I meant --

25 JUDGE KWON: Could you repeat from -- you -- the example you gave

Page 35409

1 about the Chamber --

2 Yes, you'd like to move on?

3 MR. FILE: If you don't mind, I just -- I don't think that answer

4 was responsive to my question, so I'd like to put a slightly different

5 question.

6 JUDGE KWON: Very well. That's fair enough.

7 But in any event please speak slow.

8 THE ACCUSED: [Interpretation] What do you mean there was no

9 answer? It was not answerable. Dr. Pasalic said:

10 "I talked about the participation of Yugoslavs in Serb and Muslim

11 areas or towns."

12 What do you mean it was not responsive?

13 JUDGE KWON: The question was whether he cited anything in the

14 report or not.

15 MR. FILE:

16 Q. My follow-up question is: I'm not asking you about speculation

17 based on political developments. I'm asking about scientific studies or

18 any other kind of scientific evidence that supports this assertion.

19 A. Well, no one did any research in this category of Yugoslavs.

20 There was no such -- there is no such research or study in Bosnia and

21 Herzegovina.

22 Q. Now doesn't that statement that Yugoslavs are really Serbs,

23 doesn't that violate the basic premise of the census which is that people

24 are free to declare their ethnic affiliations; in other words, despite

25 what people believe, you are going to tell them what they really are. Is

Page 35410

1 that how you're approaching this?

2 A. No, that's not my approach. That is the approach of the

3 population that freely declared their ethnic affiliation in 1991 where

4 some 7 to 8 per cent in Bosnia and Herzegovina declared themselves as

5 Yugoslavs. But then after the war, that category no longer exists in

6 Bosnia. There are four categories: Bosniaks, Croats, Serbs, and others.

7 And, of course, in science circles there is the -- the issue arises as to

8 where those Yugoslavs are.

9 Now, because there was no census, there hasn't been any census,

10 we apply the principal of analogy. According to the territorial

11 distribution of this area, we showed that such categories did not exist

12 in Zenica, Tuzla, Bihac, Sarajevo, which are predominantly Muslim towns.

13 Where the population -- the dominant population was Serbian, it actually

14 inflated their numbers because they were in mixed marriages and Serbs are

15 generally traditionally -- they had traditionally -- traditional

16 emotional ties with the concept of Yugoslavia which they had created

17 several times.

18 Q. I think this comes down to a question of methodology. You say in

19 paragraph 40:

20 "The authors should also have calculated the proportion of Serbs

21 in the category of others and then used the result to correct the data

22 from the 1997/1998 list."

23 Now this would be methodologically highly inappropriate would it

24 not, because it would be arbitrarily changing census data?

25 A. I've explained that the 1997/1998 information from the voters'

Page 35411

1 registers are irrelevant and they're unreliable for me or any other

2 researcher. This was also something that the OTP experts pointed out.

3 It's -- it's a very arbitrary principle. We could not find any solid

4 data on the basis of which we could find reliable data on what someone's

5 ethnic affiliations is.

6 Q. That wasn't -- that wasn't my question about --

7 THE INTERPRETER: The interpreter did not hear the last part of

8 the answer.

9 MR. FILE:

10 Q. That wasn't my question about the source in terms of the voting

11 register. My question was about changing data that was in the census

12 about ethnic affiliation. That would be, you agree, highly inappropriate

13 from a methodological standpoint; right?

14 A. If I understand your question, how could OTP experts back in 1997

15 or 1998 by applying that methodology possibly have changed that

16 affiliation and put together others and Yugoslavs? Where did they get

17 the right? It is our belief that the category of Yugoslavs cannot be

18 subsumed under others because that accounts for two-thirds of the others

19 population. It's absurd. It's too much to subsume under that category,

20 a heading, and this is where we part ways with the OTP experts on the

21 issue of Yugoslavs as opposed to others. That's why we're challenging

22 their theory.

23 Q. We're going to stay with this page of your report. At

24 paragraph 41, you say that:

25 "In table 1 of the addendum," you're referring to P4994, "the

Page 35412

1 authors present calculations performed only for Serbs and the Muslims.

2 The fact that the Croats and others and a considerable number of Serbs

3 among them were excluded from the general population in this sample and

4 that all of the values are expressed in relative number which in turn

5 have been the most affected by the exclusion of the Croats and the others

6 makes this calculation far from realistic."

7 And my question is: Did you actually read table 1 of the

8 addendum? Because I would refer you specifically to table 1C which

9 relates to Croats and table 1O which relates to others and provides

10 statistics for both of these groups on page 32 and page 35 of the report

11 respectively?

12 A. Yes, I remember that. I remember all of the tables for the

13 Muslims, Croats, Serbs, and others. I didn't comment on that in the same

14 context though. Hence, the definition. We calculated the Serbs and

15 Muslims because we used them as reference points from individual

16 municipalities mentioned in this case, where Croats and others were a

17 statistically negligible group simply because there weren't that many of

18 them around.

19 Q. I have to confess I'm a bit puzzled by that response because

20 that's not the way that it's written in your report. You just say that

21 the Croats and others were excluded from the general population in this

22 sample. Doesn't that misrepresent what's in the Tabeau report?

23 A. No. In my report, I dealt with the Muslims, the Croats, the

24 Serbs, and everybody else in one of the attachments. Maybe it's the

25 context of the sentence where this is said that leads you to that

Page 35413

1 erroneous conclusion. But my process -- the information on everybody,

2 Serbs, Muslims, Croats, and others alike are there. The methodology used

3 is different from that applied by Ewa Tabeau and the results too are

4 different. That is easily demonstrable. But I did not gloss over those

5 additional criteria.

6 Q. I wasn't asking you about what was in your report. I was asking

7 you about what you said was in the Tabeau report, but we'll move on.

8 I'd like to move to English page 39 and B/C/S page 37 of your

9 report, which is paragraph 111.

10 Here you're talking about the method of calculation and you say:

11 "Our method of calculation differs from that of the Prosecution

12 experts. We did not use the matching method but rather a selection of

13 various variables to calculate the aggregate indicators for each of the

14 ethnic groups. From several possible variables, we used the variables

15 relevant to the size of the total or a specific contingent of the

16 population and the natural movement (natural population growth rate for

17 each of the ethnic groups)."

18 And then after that you list some variables, and then you produce

19 a table, which is table 3, which has numbers and percentages along with a

20 footnote that says:

21 "Calculated on the basis of a number of variables, specifically

22 taking into account the number of live births, natural population growth

23 rate, differentiated by ... different [sic] ethnic groups, taking into

24 account the different levels of the rates which provides highly reliable

25 data, with mistakes possible within statistical error only."

Page 35414

1 Now I note, again, here there's nothing about your methodology.

2 Reading this, no one could even try to replicate what you've done because

3 you're not revealing how you arrived at these figures; correct?

4 A. Not correct. I disclosed my method in terms of how I arrived at

5 these figures in a different figure. We're talking about differentiated

6 birth rates providing different information based on the variables. And

7 it gives a different result as compared to the OTP expert's result in

8 relation to the overall number of persons born up until 1998. Their age

9 of consent falls in 1998. Until 1998, they were under age.

10 My indicators show the ratio between non-Serbs and Serbs, telling

11 us that a greater share of the Serbian population born by 1980 because

12 the Serbs are unrepresented in the up to under 18 years of age category

13 because of the lower birth rate, and this is a very significant factor

14 that is entirely overlooked by Ewa Tabeau in her reports. That is the

15 gist of this report.

16 Q. Again, I'm --

17 A. And later we'll be coming across specific variables between each

18 and every ethnic group, and that is what I've been talking about.

19 Q. I wasn't asking about whether you named any variables. I'm

20 asking how you got to these numbers that you put in the table. There's

21 nothing that shows how you made any calculations here. Can you point me

22 to a paragraph where you explain that?

23 A. I'll be glad to. Table 2, age, gender, groups, category; in the

24 B/C/S, it's 37, page 37 of my report. You can find that the variables

25 for age, the groups, overall population, male, female. Source, Annual

Page 35415

1 Gazette for Statistics, 1993 through 1998, Federal Bureau of Statistics.

2 Ewa Tabeau failed to use that source which is unfortunate because

3 it is the most relevant source if we're after variables. And that is

4 where I get my information on the number of inhabitants, Serbs, Croats,

5 and Muslims born by 1980 and then after 1980. This is incontrovertible

6 information and it's not something that I concocted based on nothing.

7 And then have you all the calculations in the table, paragraph by

8 paragraph; 110, when you have the result; 111, which is based on previous

9 calculations.

10 Q. Well, let's be specific here. Table 2 says:

11 "B H Population by Age and Sex According to the 1991 Census."

12 There's no break down between Serbs, Muslims, Croats, or others,

13 yet you're telling me that that is the basis for generating table 3 which

14 has a percentage break down by ethnic group of persons born before 1980

15 in Bosnia and Herzegovina. So, again, there's something missing here;

16 right?

17 A. At first sight, your observation is correct. This is universal

18 data for the overall population of Bosnia-Hercegovina, but then I apply a

19 different variable called differentiated birth rates. I can't specify

20 the paragraph at this point, but you find one for each of the ethnic

21 groups. A certain statistical formula is used in order to carry out this

22 differentiation according to the ethnic group break down and based on the

23 age groups, because in the report you don't have the age groups according

24 to each of the ethnic group clearly distinguished and I had to use my own

25 standards to calculate that.